Sri Lanka polls | Why Dissanayake's NPP is poised to dominate parliament
Most political pundits and even known JVP critics admit the NPP is bound to bag much more votes than the 42 per cent Dissanayake got in September
There is little doubt among a majority of Sri Lankans that the Centre-Left National People’s Power (NPP), led by new Marxist President Anura Dissanayake, is set to decisively win the November 14 parliamentary elections.
What is being debated is whether the new government in the island nation will have a simple or two-third majority in the 225-member House. It is probably no wonder that the NPP, whose main constituent is Dissanayake’s Janatha Vimukti Peramuna (JVP, People’s Liberation Front), is the only political party most actively campaigning to woo voters all across the country barring the Tamil-majority northern province where Tamil political parties lead the contest.
Most visible campaigners
Dissanayake stunned foes and friends alike in late September when he became the first in Sri Lanka to assume presidency from a party other than the traditional groupings led by the elite that have dominated politics in the country for seven long decades.
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The 42 per cent votes he got in that election before a second round contest with the runner-up catapulted him into the top office may not ensure the JVP-led NPP even a simple majority in parliament. But most Sri Lanka watchers agree that the political dynamics have changed irrevocably since then, in favour of the NPP.
So much so, the main Opposition SJB party led by Sajith Premadasa, who finished second in the presidential race, is now asking voters to ensure there is a strong Opposition in parliament – a clear admission that he knows he cannot beat the NPP.
Although a record number of 49 political parties as well as some 280 independent groups and 8,800 candidates are in the fray, the most visible campaigners on the streets all over Sri Lanka except the north are the candidates and backers of the NPP.
Barring the core and well-known leaders of the JVP, most NPP candidates are largely unknown beyond their pockets of influence. But with thousands of committed JVP cadres at its command, the NPP is confident that it will overcome the challenge of the traditional political parties easily.
Seeks two-third majority
President Dissanayake, 55, the NPP star, is seeking a two-third majority for his government which he says is vital for him to carry out sweeping reforms in a country whose economy dramatically collapsed two years ago, leading to a political turmoil and the ouster of then President Gotabaya Rajapaksa.
Like the presidential campaign, Dissanayake, who despite his Marxism is rooted in Sinhala-Buddhist traditions, is urging voters to stamp out the culture of corruption which he says has decayed Sri Lanka and stifled its economic potential. He is also promising to end the decades of ethnic and religious divides.
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“The reality is that the election campaign is subdued in a manner we have never seen before,” a spokesman for the independent People’s Action for Free and Fair Elections (Paffrel) said. “For once, there is no major show of money power. Even people seem to be largely uninterested unlike in the presidential election.”
Added a Colombo resident, Senadhira Gunatilake: “If you visit Colombo, you might get an impression that no election is on. Unlike the past, there are hardly any banners, posters and large election rallies.”
Dip in voter turnout likely
The Paffrel spokesman felt the voter turnout on November 14 could drop to 60 per cent – unlike the normal 70-plus per cent seen in most general elections. The voting day falls on a Thursday and will be followed by three holidays, inducing many Sri Lankans to go on short pleasure trips.
Most political pundits and even known JVP critics admit the NPP is bound to bag much more votes than the 42 per cent Dissanayake got in September. That Sri Lankans in general tend to sail with one they see as a potential winner is sure to help the NPP.
“The point is not whether the JVP/NPP will win or not but by how much,” said a former JVP activist who remains friends with Dissanayake despite quitting the party. “I won’t be surprised if they get a two-third majority although it won’t be easy.”
This assessment is widely shared in the country. So much so that a small political party, the United National Freedom Front, has taken out advertisements in the mass media urging Sri Lankans not to give the NPP a two-third majority.
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Business community’s support
Another factor that is helping Dissanayake is that stock market prices have risen by 15 per cent since he became the president. The Sri Lankan rupee too has strengthened while inflation has dipped, easing prices on the food front.
No wonder, the business community is openly backing Dissanayake and his party despite the occasional Marxist rhetoric. Insiders say most business groups are quietly funding the NPP, confident that it will take the cake in the elections.
Dissanayake has also, since the presidential campaign, softened his stand vis-à-vis the International Monetary Fund (IMF) bailout given to Sri Lanka although unease persists over the IMF conditions that have led to widespread tax increases that have proved hugely unpopular.
Missing from Tamil-majority north
If at all there is one place in Sri Lanka where the JVP does not dominate politics, it is the Tamil-majority north where Tamil parties are badly divided but remain, in varying degrees, suspicious of the Sinhalese-Buddhist majoritarian ideology of the president’s party.
An overwhelming majority of the Tamils do not appreciate that the JVP, even when in the Opposition, actively backed the brutal war on the Tamil Tigers and has never mourned the deaths of the thousands of innocent Tamils when the insurgents were crushed in 2009.
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Sri Lanka has a complex electoral system whereby 196 candidates are elected directly to the house and 29 others become members of parliament from the national list of the contesting groups.
Dissanayake’s JVP led two armed insurrections in Sri Lanka to capture state power – in 1971 and in 1988-89. Both were crushed brutally by the military, leaving tens of thousands dead. The JVP gave up violence in 1994 but remained on the margins of politics – until this year when Dissanayake got 42 per cent votes, a sharp upswing from the mere 3 per cent five years earlier, and became the president of Sri Lanka.
