Modi-Putin meet: Why India won't walk away from Russia, even under US pressure

The shadow of Washington continues to hang over India-Russia relations. As Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Russian President Vladimir Putin held wide-ranging talks on Friday afternoon (September 11), a US sanctions bill that has already cleared the Senate threatens to make the relationship much harder to sustain if it becomes law.

The Lindsey Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act, passed by the US Senate by an overwhelming 86-11 vote, could give US President Donald Trump the power to impose punitive tariffs on major buyers of Russian oil. India and China are two of Russia’s biggest customers. While the US cannot afford to do much to China, India is a different ballgame.

Sanctions threat

New Delhi could find itself in the crosshairs with a hefty 100 per cent tariff for not abiding by American diktats. The bill still has to clear the House of Representatives, and the progressive wing of the Democratic Party is not enthused and it could be stalled in the House. There is no guarantee yet which way it will go. But the threat itself is a reminder of how much more complicated India’s relationship with Moscow has become. India at the moment continues to buy Russian oil and in August nearly 50 per cent of oil purchases were from Russia.

Also read: India buys Russian oil for its own needs, not to help Moscow: Envoy

Walking away from Russia is not an option for New Delhi. Besides energy purchases, India has close defence relations with Moscow. Russia may no longer occupy the central place it once did in India’s defence relationship, but ties remain embedded in military hardware, spares, maintenance and servicing. And beyond defence lies the larger strategic calculation, keeping Moscow on India’s side increases New Delhi’s strategic options at a time when the world is in a flux with old equations breaking down. “In this geopolitical hotspot that the world is in, it will be hard for India to rely on the US,” says economist Biswajit Dhar.

Trump factor

If US President Donald Trump had his way, India should buy everything from the US. Though the Modi government in its early years appeared to tilt towards the US, Trump’s second term came as a reality check. His tariffs, his repeated claims of mediating between India and Pakistan after Operation Sindoor and his increasingly transactional approach to allies have made India more cautious about putting all its strategic eggs in the American basket.

India is far more cautious now. Trump has become more and more unpredictable. Forget India, Trump is treating even close European allies as vassals. “The US now is vassalising its relations even with close NATO allies, let alone other countries. Relationships with the US for all countries are asymmetrical,” says Anuradha Chenoy, leading foreign policy analyst and former JNU professor. In these circumstances, the naysayers who believe that Russia is the past and India needs to look to the US and the West for the future are on the back foot.

Why Moscow matters

There is another reason Moscow matters to New Delhi. Russia has traditionally been one of the few major powers with which India could disagree without the relationship itself becoming hostage to the disagreement. That latitude matters at a time when India’s relations with Washington are becoming increasingly transactional. Strategic autonomy is meaningful only if India has multiple relationships to fall back on and a Russia relationship reduced to oil purchases alone would hardly provide that.

Also read: US efforts to curb India-Russia ties will backfire, says Putin in strong remarks

For Moscow, the relationship is equally valuable. Modi’s embrace of Putin is a public demonstration that Russia is not as isolated as the West would like it to be. At a time when many Western capitals have sought to isolate the Russian president, Putin and Modi celebrating the relationship as a “Special and Privileged Strategic Partnership” carries considerable political weight.

Wider agenda

Today’s exchange between Modi and Putin covered a lot of ground. “The leaders … shared perspectives on key regional and global issues of mutual interest, including the conflicts in West Asia and the Black Sea region which have impacted maritime trade and the safety and security of Indian seafarers,” an MEA statement released after the meeting said. “Prime Minister once again reiterated that dialogue and diplomacy were the way forward in resolving conflicts and India stood ready to assist in peace efforts.” Modi has been repeating this for a while now amid reports that New Delhi could try its hand at peacemaking.

The bilateral agenda itself was wide-ranging. Defence remains an important component, with discussions reportedly continuing over the possible acquisition of Russia's Su-57 fighter aircraft and the upgrading of the BrahMos missile system. The two sides also face the issue of the large rupee surplus Russia holds. There is talk of using the rupee holdings for Russian projects in India. Labour mobility is another area where both sides are looking to smooth the way. None of these issues, individually, is likely to transform the relationship. Together, however, they demonstrate that the India-Russia partnership remains more substantial than the oil trade alone.

Also read: ‘US wanted India to buy Russian oil’: Jaishankar slams tariff flip-flop

What did the bilateral meeting bring to the table for India and Russia? “For Putin it is an important demonstration that Russia is not isolated and India presents an important opportunity. For India, it is important to demonstrate that its policy of strategic autonomy and balancing ties with the West and Russia can coexist,” says Ambassador Anil Wadhwa.

Balancing act

That may be the real significance of the Modi-Putin meeting. India is not choosing Russia over the United States, nor is it turning its back on the West. It is making the case that its relationship with Moscow remains an essential part of its strategic calculus.