Lula's Brazil victory checks rightward shift as Flávio Bolsonaro seeks annulment
Lula’s fourth term offers hope to South America’s embattled left amid a rightward shift across the region and allegations of US interference in Brazil’s election
Brazil’s Lula da Silva has managed to halt the conservative juggernaut sweeping across South America by defeating Flávio Bolsonaro in Sunday’s presidential run-off. Lula secured 51.7% of the vote, compared with 48.2% for his rival Flávio Bolsonaro, the son of former president Jair Bolsonaro.
The elder Bolsonaro, a close friend of US President Donald Trump, is in prison and barred from holding office over his role in a plot to stage a coup after losing the 2022 presidential election to Lula.
A changing political tide
Flávio Bolsonaro, following the Trump playbook, has refused to concede defeat and accept the results. He has called for scrapping the vote and holding fresh polls. Trump continues to rant about the elections being stolen from him in 2020 by Joe Biden and the Democrats.
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Lula’s victory will bring relief to left-wing forces across South America, where the political tide has turned sharply against them. In 2022, when Lula wrested back the presidency from Jair Bolsonaro, Argentina, Bolivia, Chile, Guyana, Peru, Venezuela and Colombia were governed by the left. Since then, most have swung to the right. Colombia was the latest to go, with the election of conservative candidate Abelardo de la Espriella in June. The right now governs seven of the 12 countries in South America, leaving the left with a much-reduced presence.
Washington tightens its grip
The regional shift has been reinforced by strong backing from the Trump administration for conservative leaders. In January, US Special Forces captured Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, who had long been a key figure on the Latin American left and a supplier of oil to Cuba. His vice president, Delcy Rodríguez, took over as interim president and has since moved closer to Washington.
Venezuela has agreed to give the US preferential access to its oil fields, raising questions about how much room Caracas now has to pursue an independent policy. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio is seen as a key figure in the administration’s Venezuela policy.
Lula wins despite political headwinds
Brazil’s election also unfolded against allegations of outside interference. Lula’s supporters accused US Big Tech companies of favouring Bolsonaro, alleging that Meta censored Lula’s posts while promoting his rival’s social media content. The claims have not been established independently.
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Despite the political headwinds, Lula has secured a fourth presidential term. Brazil’s continued presence under left-wing leadership, alongside Uruguay under Yamandú Orsi, means that the region’s political balance has not shifted entirely to the right. But Lula’s narrow victory also underlines how deeply divided Brazil remains, even as his win offers a pause in South America’s conservative turn.
