Is Sharad Pawar scripting Maharashtra’s next great plot twist?

Has what many are calling Sharad Pawar’s “swansong-of-a-move" quietly opened a back channel to the BJP, or is he simply reminding everyone that, even as an octogenarian, he remains the one wily politician capable of making Maharashtra dance to his tune?

That question has consumed the state’s political class after a whirlwind week of closed-door meetings between Nationalist Congress Party (Sharad Pawar) and BJP leaders, at least two of which, insiders insist, were attended by both Pawar and Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis.

Add carefully calibrated and choreographed denials about the meetings (one of which happened late at night in a corporate major’s office, a stone’s throw away from Vidhan Bhavan), mixed signals and contradictory statements, and the rumour mill has gone into overdrive.

The speculation isn’t entirely out of the blue. PM Narendra Modi has often acknowledged Pawar’s guidance during his early political years. The BJP even stayed out of Pawar’s Baramati bastion in the 2014 Lok Sabha election despite riding what it had then chest-thumpingly called “the Modi wave.”

Meeting rumours intensify

The latest spark came from NCP (SP) working president Supriya Sule, who appeared to extend an olive branch to the Modi government on the contentious delimitation issue. “If the Union government amends the delimitation Bill by providing a 50% increase in seats, we may consider supporting it,” she said after a presser, before quickly adding that there was “no change” in the party’s long-standing position.

The qualification did little to calm the storm.

Also Read: 'Sharad Pawar under pressure from party MLAs to join NDA'

With eight Lok Sabha MPs, NCP (SP) could become a crucial player whenever the NDA seeks numbers for major constitutional legislation. Within minutes, political circles were buzzing that Sharad Pawar was inching closer to the BJP.

Perhaps realising the political tremors her remarks had triggered, Sule soon appeared to row back. “We haven’t even received the Bill yet. When we do, we'll discuss it with our INDIA Bloc partners and arrive at a collective decision,” she told reporters, stressing that parties such as the TMC, SP and DMK shared the same position as her party.

Later, she took to X, dismissing media reports as “inaccurate and speculative” and insisting no decision would be taken without consulting allies.

Sule's balancing act

If the intention was to douse the fire, it had precisely the opposite effect.

Her remarks coincided with the string of high-profile meetings involving Sharad Pawar, Fadnavis, state NCP(SP) chief Jayant Patil and senior leaders from Ajit Pawar’s NCP, fuelling talk of yet another political realignment in a state where dramatic alliances have become almost routine.

Political commentator Dr Akshay Kulkarni believes many observers are missing the larger game. “Pawar is converting NCP (SP)’s parliamentary numbers into leverage at a moment when both the NDA and the INDIA Bloc need every vote they can get,” he says.

Also Read: Sharad Pawar rejects defection rumours, says no NCP (SP) MP will join rival faction

“By signalling openness on issues like delimitation while remaining formally within the opposition, the party is positioning itself as a swing player capable of tipping the balance on major national decisions.”

This ‘hunt-with-the-foxes-and-run-with-the-hares’ strategy, he argues, also simultaneously weakens the Congress’ ability to dominate the INDIA Bloc. “It reminds everyone that this isn’t a tightly controlled coalition. Regional parties can bargain directly with Delhi on issue-based terms.”

Sule, however, now seems at pains to categorically dismiss rumours of a crossover. “Nobody has asked for such a crossover, and none of our leaders wants to switch sides. Everyone stands firmly with Pawar saheb and will abide by whatever decision he takes,” she said, rejecting suggestions that recent meetings hinted at a hidden understanding with the BJP.

Leverage over numbers

These developments, close on the heels of Supriya Sule’s daughter Revati tying the knot (barely a month ago) with Sarang, the son of a Nagpur-based chairman and managing director of Vishwaraj group - Arun Lakhanee - have only added to the buzz.

Also Read: Sharad Pawar signals high-level meet as INDIA bloc moves to curb cracks within

Lakhanee, it must be pointed out, was also recently elected unopposed to the Maharashtra Legislative Council with help from senior BJP leaders, including Union Minister Nitin Gadkari and Maharashtra CM Fadnavis. Interestingly, the same duo of BJP leaders is known to have played a key role in finalising the marital match between the Sule and Lakhani families.

Keeping options open

Kulkarni underlines how the current ambiguity by the NCP (SP) is deliberate. “By neither embracing nor rejecting the government’s position, NCP (SP) is cleverly keeping both doors open.”

If the party stays with the INDIA Bloc, it gains disproportionate influence over opposition strategy. If it edges closer to the NDA, the same stand can be recast as constructive, issue-based cooperation.

The timing, he adds, is equally calculated. “Attending the July 19 opposition meeting before Parliament convenes isn’t just procedural. It’s narrative management. NCP(SP) wants to remain central to opposition politics while quietly keeping communication channels open with the government.”

Also Read: ‘Just a courtesy call,’ clarifies Sule after Sena (UBT) fumes over Pawar-Shinde meet

For a party with just 10 MLAs in Maharashtra but eight MPs in Parliament, New Delhi currently offers more political leverage than Mumbai. “This is smart politics,” Kulkarni says. “With limited Assembly numbers, confrontation achieves little. National relevance, however, brings visibility, bargaining power, and future concessions.”

His verdict is blunt. “The Pawars have turned something they never really possessed into political currency.”

Whether this ultimately leads to issue-based cooperation with the BJP, renewed opposition unity, or yet another Maharashtra-style political earthquake remains anyone’s guess.

One thing, however, is beyond dispute: Sharad Pawar has once again made himself the state’s most consequential politician, without making a single formal political move.

Alternative theory emerges

Bigger game?

A retired senior bureaucrat, who has worked closely with Sharad Pawar (when he was CM) and is also familiar with Devendra Fadnavis, believes everyone is looking at the wrong player. “People think this story is about the NCP. It isn’t,” he says with a laugh. “It’s really about an internal BJP power struggle.”

According to him, the controversy over the alleged theft of donations at the Ayodhya Ram Mandir is being amplified to politically weaken Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath ahead of the 2027 Assembly election. “A powerful BJP leader in Delhi with prime ministerial ambitions wants Yogi cut down to size before the succession battle begins,” he claims.

Also Read: Sharad Pawar’s politics of betrayal ended by BJP’s poll win: Shah

If Yogi’s prospects diminish, he argues, Fadnavis could emerge as a serious national contender. “And that’s precisely why another section within the BJP is strengthening Eknath Shinde to keep Fadnavis in check.”

His theory is dramatic.

“Fadnavis could be bumped up to the Union Cabinet while Shinde returns as Chief Minister, with Supriya Sule and Sunetra Pawar as Deputy Chief Ministers.”

If you think that sounds like pure political fiction, think again. This is after all Maharashtra – where yesterday’s impossible headline has an icky habit of reappearing in tomorrow’s breaking news.

Once too often.