Is Myanmar military junta set to lose Rakhine?
Rebel offensive in Sittwe could delay India-backed Kaladan corridor as fighters encircle key ports, forcing New Delhi to navigate complex ties with insurgent groups
The rebels of the Arakan Army (AA) have mounted the most decisive offensive in their war of independence from Myanmar — the final assault on Sittwe, the capital of the country's westernmost state of Rakhine (formerly Arakan).
If fighting persists in Sittwe, which sits at the heart of the India-funded Kaladan Multimodal Transit Transport Project (KMTTP), New Delhi will have much difficulty in operationalising this corridor that aims to open an alternative route to India's north-eastern states.
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Sittwe's significance
AA's chief spokesperson and top leader, Khaine Thukkha, recently told mediapersons that rebel fighters have this week attacked three outposts near the Regional Operations Command (ROC) in Sittwe.
If Sittwe falls to the AA, Myanmar's military Tatmadaw may also lose control over Manaung town and may just about hold on to the China-funded deep-sea port town of Kyaukphyu, both of which are located in the Rakhine State.
The Arakan Army has so far avoided launching an assault against Kyaukphyu, perhaps because of Chinese pressure, but its fighters have encircled the port town. Military analysts feel the Tatmadaw may find it difficult to hold on to Kyaukphyu if Sittwe falls, since the rest of the Rakhine province is now firmly under the AA's control.
Battle for Sittwe intensifies
The Myanmar army maintains a military engineering base in Kyamatauk, around three kilometres south of the ROC. “The shells fired by the military fell into [AA-controlled] Ponnagyun Township,” sources in the Arakan Army said.
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They added that their fighters have already attacked military outposts near Amyint Kyun, Wabo and Kyamatauk villages in Sittwe Township. Residents reported heavy fighting between Myanmar soldiers and Arakan Army fighters around these military outposts.
Army low on morale?
Rakhine media outlet Narinjara News claimed that the AA fighters have conducted a drone strike against Police Battalion 12 on the outskirts of Sittwe town. But it did not mention casualties.
It also said that the Tatmadaw has concentrated Infantry Battalions 20, 232 and 270, Light Infantry Battalions 344 and 354, and Police Battalions 12 and 36, to defend Sittwe town and the ROC. Residents say the Myanmar army still has numerical superiority over the rebel fighters, but morale is running low.
Narinjara News reported that seven soldiers and four police officers deserted their positions in the PB 36 base with their weapons last Tuesday (January 6).
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Citing residents, it said two soldiers similarly deserted the PB 36 base. Myanmar troops were searching the town for deserters and threatening to execute them, the residents said.
More drone strikes
According to the AA, their fighters have also conducted drone strikes on the Danyawadi Naval Base and the Police Battalion 32 base in Rakhine’s Kyaukphyu Township this week, Narinjara reported.
A “resistance source” told the outlet that the attacks inflicted an unknown number of casualties in the naval base, with two bombs hitting its residential quarters. They claimed the regime sent injured soldiers from the naval base to Kyaukphyu town for treatment earlier this week.
The Arakan Army has taken control of all approaches to Kyaukphyu, but like in Sittwe, the Myanmar military formations are still being supplied by sea. That will continue till the nation's army controls the port infrastructure in both towns.
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The Arakan Army overran much of the Rakhine province by September last year but stopped to regroup and stock up on supplies, especially ammunition and foodstuffs. They resumed their offensive in late December and quickly took control of all land approaches to both Sittwe and Kyaukphyu.
Implications for India
The fighting around Sittwe is of much concern for India, since the port town sits at the heart of the India-backed KMTTP that seeks to provide an alternative way to connect to northeast India, if Dhaka reneges on its promise for transit through Bangladesh.
The Kaladan project envisages a sea connection between ports in eastern India to Sittwe, then through the Kaladan River to Paletwa and finally by road to Zorinpuii in Mizoram state.
What if Sittwe falls?
Any damage caused to the Sittwe Port refurbished with Indian funds will be a direct blow to the Narendra Modi government's plans to operationslise the Kaladan project. Such plans will face inevitable delays if the fighting continues.
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If Sittwe falls, India will have to deal with the Arakan Army, whose leaders may announce independence and seek recognition from foreign powers. Since areas beyond Paletwa up to the Mizoram border are largely controlled by Chin rebel groups, New Delhi will have to deal with multiple insurgent groups to operationalise the Kaladan corridor. And if fighting continues, it might be too risky to use it.
