Why Modi may become biggest beneficiary of SC’s EWS verdict

The Supreme Court’s imprimatur for a 10 per cent reservation for Economically Weaker Sections (EWS) in government jobs and educational institutions puts the ruling BJP at an electoral advantage over its political rivals.

That is evident in the manner in which most Opposition parties, with the exception of MK Stalin’s DMK, either rushed to claim credit for facilitating parliamentary sanction to the EWS quota or, as in the case of the Samajwadi Party and the Bahujan Samaj Party, maintained a stoic silence on the judgment.

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The BJP’s principal rival and the largest Opposition party, the Congress, went a step ahead and sought to claim credit for laying the groundwork, during the UPA-era, which ultimately allowed the BJP to introduce the EWS quota through the 103^rd Constitution Amendment in January 2019.

The exclusion of Scheduled Castes, Scheduled Tribes, and OBCs from benefits of the EWS quota makes it clear that beneficiaries of this additional 10 per cent reservation in government jobs and educational institutions will predominantly be the so-called economically weaker members of the forward/upper castes among Hindus.

Rohini panel’s findings

It is a widely acknowledged fact that benefits of pre-existing quotas for SCs, STs, and OBCs are largely hoarded by members of the more socially or politically dominant castes among these categories. For instance, the G Rohini Commission, constituted by the Centre in 2017 for sub-categorisation of OBCs, made a preliminary finding that nearly 97 per cent of government jobs and seats in educational institutions reserved for OBCs were held by members of just 25 per cent of the over 2,633 sub-castes recognised as other backward classes in the central list.

The benefits of the EWS quota will be hoarded by the more influential segments of the forward/upper castes — Brahmins, Thakurs, Kayasthas, Marathas, Patidars, Jats, and the like. It is no secret that most of these are unwavering vote banks of the BJP

The Rohini Commission is yet to submit its final report. Its tenure, originally meant to end in March 2018 but extended 13 times, will end in January 2023. But it has reportedly analysed data of over one lakh OBC quota beneficiaries and reached a provisional finding that suggests that while 983 OBC sub-groups have zero representation in jobs and educational institutions, another 994 sub-castes have a representation of around 3 per cent.

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If this skewed implementation is any indication, the EWS quota is likely to follow a similar trend where a bulk of its benefits will be hoarded by the more influential segments of the forward/upper castes — Brahmins, Thakurs, Kayasthas, Marathas, Patidars, Jats, and the like. It is no secret that most of these forward Hindu communities are unwavering vote banks of the BJP, particularly in north and central India where the saffron party has successfully pitched its strongest electoral citadels.

Minorities out of rollout?

Given the present regime’s singular and unapologetic emphasis on Hindu majoritarianism, it is also possible that those economically backward but socially higher up in the perceived pecking order among religious minorities, such as Muslims and Christians, will be entirely excluded from the EWS quota rollout.

Within days of the SC’s EWS verdict, the Centre, in a separate and still sub judice matter, told the apex court that granting the benefits of reservation for SCs to Dalits who converted to Islam or Christianity would be tantamount to “grave injustice” and “abuse of the process of law.” This stand of the Centre is at odds with its recent decision of setting up a commission, headed by former Chief Justice of India KG Balakrishnan, to examine whether Dalits who converted to Islam or Christianity should be granted the benefits of affirmative action reserved for SCs from the Hindu, Sikh, and Buddhist communities. It only strengthens the likelihood of economically weaker Muslims and Christians being excluded from the benefits of the EWS quota.

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Thus, the EWS quota, in its practical rollout, is expected to be exclusionary, no matter how shrill the BJP’s claim of its bolstering inclusive development may be. It, thus, seems ironic that Opposition parties, which criticise the BJP for its policies and politics perpetuating Hindu majoritarianism, are clamouring to be seen as favouring a quota that is designed to benefit only a section of Hindus.

Multiple leaders from various Opposition parties conceded to The Federal that the compulsion to do so is etched in electoral considerations stemming from a fear of further losing the support of Hindu upper castes who, compared to the SCs, STs, and OBCs, are smaller in population percentage but influence narratives during elections, enjoy greater political, social, and economic clout, and tend to vote en masse.

Result of long-term plan

The BJP and its ideological parent, the RSS, have time and again advocated the need for revisiting the criterion for reservations and remodelling it on economic rather than social backwardness. In doing so, the BJP has successfully endeared itself to Hindu upper/forward castes that have, for decades, lobbied against the reservation apparatus for SC/ST/OBCs on the specious ground that it chokes merit, is discriminatory against them, and so, must be replaced by an affirmative action plan to help the economically weaker sections, irrespective of their caste.

However, the BJP has also been acutely aware that dismantling the SC/ST/OBC reservation entirely would come at too steep an electoral price, as this quota system has a formidable constituency of its own. This constituency has only been strengthened over the decades through successive Supreme Court judgments, the Mandal Commission, and the social justice-professing caste-based political parties it spawned.

Through a plethora of populist schemes that variously promise either free or heavily subsidised rations, healthcare and so on, Modi has sought to carve out a new but robust vote bank of beneficiaries that is amorphous in its caste/class composition

Attempts by BJP leaders and leading lights of the RSS to test the waters for a revision of the pre-existing quota system have always evoked vociferous protests by the SC, ST, and OBC communities, as well as the political parties that claim to represent their interests.

Tackling the vexed issue 

Since assuming the premiership in May 2014, Narendra Modi has slowly but surely adopted a more insidious approach to navigate around this tricky reservation conundrum. Through a plethora of populist schemes that variously promise either free or heavily subsidised rations, health care, LPG cylinders, housing, insurance, etc., Modi has sought to carve out a new but robust vote bank of beneficiaries or laabharthis that is amorphous in its caste/class composition.

The actual efficacy of these schemes in accelerating socio-economic welfare remains highly suspect. Yet, the aggressive marketing of such initiatives by a pliant media and the BJP’s extremely proficient spin doctors as realisation of the ‘Sabka Saath, Sabka Vikas’ pitch are meant to transcend the silos of caste and give Modi’s policy prescriptions verisimilitude of caste-neutral welfarism that has achieved the broadest possible societal inclusion.

It is on the strength of this manufactured perception that the BJP plans to counter its rivals who, while welcoming the apex court’s EWS quota verdict, have renewed demands for a socio-economic caste census. The BJP’s defence of the EWS quota is expected to be two pronged: first, the Supreme Court has upheld it in the exact form that the Modi government originally drafted it and, second, while Opposition parties are indulging in caste politics by repeatedly demanding caste enumeration, Modi is working for the welfare of all Indians.

In September 2021, when the Centre placed its unequivocal objections against a caste census before the Supreme Court, several Opposition parties felt they got a common and electorally emotive plank to close ranks against the BJP. Not only Opposition parties, such as the Congress, RJD, SP, Left Front constituents, and the BSP, but even BJP allies like Apna Dal (S) and the Republican Party of India (Athawale) vociferously demanded caste-wise enumeration in the 2021 Census.

BJP’s defence of EWS quota is expected to be two pronged: first, SC has upheld it in the exact form that the Modi government originally drafted it; second, while Opposition parties are indulging in caste politics, Modi is working for the welfare of all Indians

The Centre, however, decided to brazen out the gathering storm even though the chorus for socio-economic caste census (SECC) brought together RJD’s Tejashwi Yadav and Bihar chief minister Nitish Kumar, who was still in a ruling alliance with the BJP. Tejashwi also wrote to 33 leaders of sundry political parties and chief ministers of all non-BJP-ruled states, including then Congress chief Sonia Gandhi, NCP’s Sharad Pawar, DMK’s MK Stalin, Trinamool Congress’s Mamata Banerjee, BJD’s Naveen Patnaik, CPM’s Sitaram Yechury, JMM’s Hemant Soren, YSR Congress’s YS Jagan Mohan Reddy, and BSP’s Mayawati.

Sonia, too, set up a panel of her party colleagues to firm up the party’s position on a caste census, following which the Congress, in its Udaipur Declaration this May, declared that it would campaign for an SECC.

Following the Supreme Court’s decision upholding the constitutional validity of the EWS quota, the Congress, RJD, JD (U), Left Front constituents, and a few other parties have renewed their demand for caste enumeration in the census. However, this chorus has been dulled by the simultaneous expression of support these parties, including the RJD that was one of only three outfits that voted against the 103^rd Constitution Amendment in Parliament, have extended to the EWS quota.

The only consolation for the Opposition is that the Supreme Court’s decision to uphold the EWS quota’s validity now makes the hitherto 50 per cent ceiling on reservations redundant. The ruling JMM-Congress-RJD alliance in Jharkhand has already brought a Bill in the state assembly proposing to raise reservation in government jobs to 77 per cent with a hike in the quota for all existing categories.

Nitish Kumar, say sources, may follow with a similar hike in Bihar. Modi, meanwhile, has emerged as the biggest beneficiary of the Supreme Court’s verdict.

Also read: EWS quota: High income threshold, current job crisis suggest rollout is no breeze