Why India is reaching out to South Caucasus and Mediterranean region

Minister of State for External Affairs Meenakshi Lekhi has ended an official visit to Greece. In December 2022, External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar concluded a successful visit to neighbouring Cyprus. This dalliance with the Mediterranean is part of India’s strategy to develop relations with the region not only because of its strategic location but also to take on the emerging axis of Pakistan, Turkey and Azerbaijan.

Turkey has historically pursued close relations with Pakistan, which has been an impediment for closer ties with India. However, Turkish President Reccep Tayip Erdogan’s newfound belligerence regarding Kashmir has alarmed Delhi. This was most forcefully articulated after the axing of Article 370 of the Indian constitution giving special status to Kashmir. Since then Erdogan has raked up the Kashmir issue in every UN address. Along with Erdogan’s strident anti-India stand, reports say that Turkey has become a base for Kashmiri secessionists.

The muscular and proactive policy Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s administration follows was quick to hit back. At every given opportunity, including in the UN, Modi and Jaishankar have regularly met with their counterparts from the three countries inimical to Turkey – Armenia, Cyprus and Greece.

Turkey’s game plan

While Turkey has no direct conflict with Armenia, it carries a historical baggage of the Armenian genocide, which has prevented normalization of bilateral ties. Moreover, Ankara supports fellow Turk and close ally Azerbaijan, a state rich in oil and gas, in its conflict with neighbouring Armenia regarding the disputed territory of Nagorno-Karabakh.

Pakistan, similarly, has been engaging with Azerbaijan, since its independence in 1991. This was facilitated by Turkey. The two are strategic partners, and since at least 2014 Pakistan has been supplying defence material to Azerbaijan. Like Turkey, Pakistan has refused to establish diplomatic relations with Armenia, a country, which interestingly has very old ties with India.

As Erdogan continued his shrill rhetoric against India, the latter made its first ever defence deal with Armenia with the sale of the SWATHI weapon locating radars developed by the DRDO for $ 40 million. The small landlocked state situated in the South Caucasus occupies a strategic geo-political location, sandwiched as it is between Russia, Turkey, Iran and Azerbaijan. It also unequivocally supports the Indian position on Kashmir.

Armenia-Azerbaijan war

A watershed moment occurred with the 2020 war that Armenia and Azerbaijan fought over Nagorno-Karabakh. Turkish arms and military advisors won the war for Azerbaijan, giving the country its very first military win against Armenia in three decades, and allowing it to wrest the enclave away from the latter. Pakistan came out strongly in support of Azerbaijan and there are credible reports that Pakistani mercenaries were also involved. This victory has imbued new confidence in Ankara, Baku and Islamabad.

The war made for even closer relations between Azerbaijan and Pakistan, which sees the former as a valuable source of funds. A tripartite meeting in Islamabad in 2021 by the foreign ministers of these two states and Turkey ended with the adoption of the “Islamabad Declaration” which said that Azerbaijan, Turkey and Pakistan back each other’s position on Kashmir, Cyprus and Nagorno-Karabakh. This was followed up by trilateral military exercises “Three Brothers” in Baku in September 2021.

Azeri Defence Minister Hikmat Mirzayev was quoted as saying: “Azerbaijan, Turkey and Pakistan have entered the history of humanity as close friends and brothers… Evidence of this can be seen in the solidarity and support of Turkey and Pakistan to Azerbaijan from the first day of the 44-day counteroffensive operations launched by Azerbaijan against the Armenian armed forces on September 27, 2020.”

Through Pakistan and Afghanistan, Turkey has gained a foothold in South Asia, and through the Karabakh war, also in the South Caucuses. Now Azerbaijan was injecting itself into South Asia politics.

India’s counter

In a counter-move India too has now gained a foothold in the Caucasus. The Karabakh war exposed Armenia’s military weakness, the insufficiency of its arsenal of Russian arms, which proved to be no match for the Turkish equipment that was deployed, especially Turkish Bayraktar TB2 drones. Deserted by its Western friends, Armenia has turned to India for support which India has readily obliged. For the first time India will be exporting the indigenously manufactured Pinaka rocket launchers and anti-tank rockets to Armenia, in a Rs. 2,000 crore deal concluded in September last year. Last year, during a border clash between Armenia and Azerbaijan, India even called the latter the “aggressor side”.

Following this has been India’s outreach to the Mediterranean region. While Greece has been Turkey’s  traditional rival, with disputed maritime boundaries, Ankara has also invaded Cyprus and insists on the country’s partition to carve out a separate Turkish Repulic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC). Cyprus rejects this and Turkey is currently the only country to recognise TRNC. But after the Karabakh war it has been pushing for its recognition by fellow Turkic states.

While India has enjoyed cordial relations with both Greece and Cyprus, new momentum has now been added thanks to the Turkish angle. In a video conference between Jaishankar and his Greek counterpart Nikos Dendias in 2020, Dendias said the meeting was on the “strengthening of Greek-Indian relations and developments in the Eastern Mediterranean and South Asia”.

Jaishankar

In June 2021, Jaishankar visited Greece and in March last year Dendias visited India. These exchanges came after a gap of 18 years, with both sides also pledging to deepen bilateral military cooperation.

In December 2022, Jaishankar concluded a hugely successful visit to Cyprus, which has always supported the Indian position on Kashmir in the international arena.

Ahead of the visit, Cyprus said that it would discuss “Turkish provocations” with the Indian foreign minister. Meanwhile, Jaishankar said “India reiterates its commitment to a bi-communal, bi-zonal federation based on UN resolutions as the solution to the Cyprus issue.” Both sides signed three major MoUs, including in defence cooperation. In Nicosia, Jaishankar said the Mediterranean region would see more of India in future. Meenakshi Lekhi has followed up on this promise.

There is no doubt that the Ankara-Baku-Islamabad axis is being countered by Delhi’s emerging partnership with Armenia, Cyprus and Greece. With Turkey ravaged by a devastating earthquake, Delhi has rushed aid to Ankara. Turkey’s ambassador Firat Sunel has thanked the Indian government. “Dost is a common word in Turkish and Hindi… We have a Turkish proverb: ‘Dost kara günde belli olur’ (A friend in need is a friend indeed). Thank you very much,” he posted on Twitter. With Pakistan in economic doldrums, hopefully this may open a new chapter in India’s relations with both countries. Only the future will tell.