SC verdict will sink K'taka's coalition govt, rebels may stay afloat

The Karnataka coalition government is most likely to sink like the Titanic when it faces a floor test in the Assembly on Thursday. The only question left now is: Will the Congress-JD(S) rebels go down with it or survive by jumping into the BJP boat?

The Supreme Court’s interim judgment on the resignation of the 15 rebels has put two options on the board. By allowing the Speaker to act independently on the resignations, the apex court has left him the discretion of disqualifying them. And, by restraining the Congress-JD(S) from making it mandatory for the rebels to participate in Assembly proceedings, it has paved the way for the fall of the government.

Two things can happen now.

Scenario one: The Speaker can immediately disqualify them for voluntarily quitting membership of their original parties. This would imply that the rebels would not be eligible for becoming ministers without winning an election that would be precipitated by their disqualification.

If this happens, the government would most likely fall since the coalition would be left with just 100 members in the Assembly in spite of the majority mark coming down to 105.

Once the coalition falls, it would become incumbent on the Governor to invite the BJP, especially if it stakes claim, to form the next government.

What happens to the rebels in this case?

In case the Speaker’s decision to disqualify them under the Tenth Schedule of the Constitution is not challenged, the BJP will not be able to accommodate the rebels immediately as ministers. The rebels will be left with no other option but to contest the bypolls, win them and then get inducted in the government that would be sworn-in. This would leave their fate in the hands of the BJP and the electorate, something that the rebels do not want.

The other possibility is that soon after forming the government, the BJP will bring a no-confidence motion against the Speaker. And then, the new Speaker would have the liberty of reviewing the disqualification of the 15 rebels by his predecessor.

But, this strategy is fraught with risk. In its interim judgment, the Supreme Court has said it will deal with the larger question of the Speaker’s discretion in dealing with resignations later. The court will decide later if “resignations submitted by legislators earlier than petitions for their disqualification under the Tenth Schedule should have priority or both sets of proceedings should be taken up simultaneously or the disqualification proceedings should have precedence over the request(s) for resignation.”

In case, the court decides that disqualification can be preceded by hearing on the request for resignation, the rebels would be ineligible for becoming ministers till they get re-elected.

Scenario two: The Speaker can delay the decision on both the disqualification proceedings and the request for resignation. If this happens, the Congress and the JD(S) will issue whips to its members to support the government in the floor test. But, since the MLAs have been allowed by the apex court to decide whether or not they want to attend the proceedings, they can always ignore the whip and abstain. If this happens, the coalition government would most likely fall. Once the government falls, the BJP would move to replace the current Speaker with someone from its own ranks.

What happens to the rebels in this case?

If the Speaker doesn’t take any decision before the trust vote, the rebels can be inducted as ministers in the next government. They can return to the Assembly as BJP members in case they win the ensuing by-elections.

The Speaker, of course, has the option of disqualifying them before the trust vote. But, this will happen only if the rebels drop hints of a rapprochement with the coalition government, or if some of them decide to withdraw their resignations before the floor test.

So, how will the script finally evolve?

The Congress-JD(S) will try to snare the rebels through its carrot and sticks policy. They would be asked to return or face disqualification and, thus, an uncertain future. In case they are willing to negotiate, rebels will also be offered rewards for their homecoming.

The BJP, meanwhile, will assure them of cabinet berths, party tickets in bypolls and guaranteed re-election, even if they are disqualified.

It will be for the rebels to decide what they want: The ministry in hand, or the promise of one six months later.