Burden of centuries-old history weighs heavily on current Indian politics

When viewed against the almost five millennia that have elapsed since the beginnings of the Harappan civilisation, India’s existence as an independent nation is an insignificant blip. Even two centuries of colonial rule counts for little more than a footnote in this broad historical sweep. The Mauryan, Gupta and Mughal empires still come out in front in longevity — some would even say in glory. No one can argue with India’s achievements during these golden ages, whether in the fields of philosophy or literature, mathematics or medicine, architecture or the arts.

As India looks beyond the seventy-fifth anniversary of its Independence in 2022, the burden of history and the desire to restore this past glory is weighing heavily on its politics and society. In the early 1700s, India was the world’s largest economy. By the time the British left, India’s share of global economic output had dropped to less than 4 per cent. Newly independent India was synonymous with famine and deprivation. Despite the progress that has been made since then, India has yet to shake off these stereotypes or live up to its full potential.

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China races ahead

For the first time in 300 years, India’s main strategic and economic rival, China, is tantalisingly close to turning the tables on the dominance of the West. India sees its rightful place as being alongside China in reasserting the pre-Renaissance status quo. On certain measures India is inching up the global rankings. Even considering the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic, it is on track to surpass Japan to become the world’s third largest economy by the beginning of the 2030s. It will become the globe’s most populous nation in the middle of the current decade. It is also expected to retain its third-place position for military spending.

But on almost every calculation aside from population, China is racing ahead: building aircraft carriers that will extend its strategic reach, increasing its share of world trade and attracting the bulk of foreign investment going into Asia. China has successfully deployed its Belt and Road Initiative in all of India’s neighbours, projecting itself further into the Indian Ocean region and intruding into New Delhi’s strongest sphere of influence.

With India’s political landscape firmly dominated by the BJP, the discussion around righting the ‘wrongs’ of the past is dominating the political narrative. Executive posts in once politically neutral institutions such as universities, scientific and cultural institutions are being filled with government appointees. Histories and school curriculums are being rewritten. Even sports is not immune to this creeping xenophobia. In late 2021, seven Indian Muslims in the state of Uttar Pradesh were arrested for allegedly celebrating Pakistan’s T20 World Cup victory over India.

Far worse has been the recent spate of lynching of Muslims on suspicion of consuming beef or for merely being in the wrong place at the wrong time, with beatings and abuse being aired on social media drawing little or no condemnation from the government. Critics of the BJP, both domestic and foreign, are also firmly in the party’s sights. In early 2021, pro-Modi protesters burned effigies of climate activist Greta Thunberg after she tweeted support for striking farmers in Delhi. A few months later, Twitter came under pressure to delete posts critical of the government’s handling of the second wave of the Covid-19 pandemic.

No other event in post-Independence India has thrown such a harsh light on India’s failure of governance, the pitiful state of its health services and the plight of workers in the informal sector. Prior to the pandemic, India took pride in being the largest supplier of generic medicines in the world. As countries scrambled to manufacture Covid-19 vaccines, India touted itself as the nation that would ‘save humanity from a big disaster’.

Pandemic fiasco

In February 2021, the BJP passed a resolution proclaiming that ‘the able, sensible, committed and visionary leadership of Prime Minister Modi’ had defeated Covid-19. Two months later, India became the global epicentre of the virus. Mass gatherings at the Kumbh Mela religious festival in Haridwar and political rallies during state elections exploded into superspreader events. Images of relatives begging for oxygen to save their loved ones, of funeral pyres being lit in parking lots as crematoriums ran out of space and of the bloated bodies of Covid-19 victims floating down the Ganges will haunt the world’s perceptions of India for many years to come.

More than anything, the pandemic highlighted the gap between government promises and performance. By one estimate, Covid-induced lockdowns saw an additional 230 million individuals fall below the national poverty line. Half of all women working in the formal and informal sectors lost their jobs. During the 2020/21 financial year, the economy shrank by 7.3 per cent, the largest contraction in the country’s history.

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Even Modi’s staunchest supporters accused him of hubris and complacency. A once-compliant media stationed reporters outside hospitals and morgues and found evidence that rates of Covid-19 infections and deaths were up to ten times higher than revealed in official statistics. A concerted vaccination drive starting in the second half of 2021 helped stem the pandemic, but at the expense of other sectors of the country’s creaking health system.

Drift to the right

Devastating though its consequences have been, the Covid-19 pandemic is unlikely to stall the entrenched drift to the right in Indian politics. A Pew Research Center poll published in 2021 found that while a large majority of Indians viewed respect for other religions as an important part of being Indian, they displayed a high desire for religious segregation, especially when it came to marriage and accepting people of certain faiths as neighbours. This innate conservatism, combined with the lack of a coherent political opposition, will continue to work in favour of the BJP and its allies.

Monikers such as the ‘New India’ and the ‘Second Republic’ are entering mainstream discourse as decades of secular nationalism based on cultural pluralism are being replaced by cultural nationalism based on a majoritarian religion, namely Hinduism. The mantra of self-reliance in the twenty-first century is being weaponised in a way that has little to do with Gandhi’s concept of swaraj. Supermarkets are replacing spinning wheels. Middle-class Indians prefer shopping at H&M outlets than at government-run khadi cooperatives where handmade garments are sold. Rather than seeing itself as a balancing power, India now aspires to be a leading power — a move the United States welcomes as it seeks ways to counter China’s influence in the region.

(Courtesy of Pan Macmillan India)

John Zubrzycki has lived and worked in India as a foreign correspondent, diplomat and tour guide. His other books include the best-selling Jadoowallahs, Jugglers and Jinns: A Magical History of India and The Mysterious Mr Jacob: Diamond Merchant, Magician and Spy.