BJP’s rising fortunes and what it means for ties with JD(U) in Bihar

The battle for supremacy between Janata Dal (U) and the BJP is likely to intensify as the latter is in a buoyant mood after Yogi Adityanath returned to power in Uttar Pradesh with an overwhelming majority.

The recent spat between Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar and Assembly Speaker Vijay Kumar Sinha, a BJP MLA, is also a poignant pointer to the ‘uneasy calm’ between the two parties. Though a different reason is attributed to the face-off between the CM and the Speaker inside the Assembly house, what surprised everybody was Nitish’s outburst against Sinha. The extreme reaction was uncalled for by any yardstick, even if one assumes Sinha was not going by the Constitution, as was claimed by Nitish.

It only shows Nitish’s discomfort with the BJP running the government. He is clearly apprehensive of the party exerting pressure on him in one way or the other after its electoral success in neighbouring Uttar Pradesh.

Begusarai clash

After a clash between two communities in his constituency – Begusarai – Union Minister Giriraj Singh, also a Hindutva icon, minced no words in embarrassing Nitish and his government when he commented, “Hindus are not safe even in his own constituency.”

Giriraj further commented: “I could not sleep for two to three days after watching The Kashmir Files. Hindus are not a vote bank so they are treated like orphans.” In the same vein, he asked Nitish whether Hindus of Rajaura, a place in his constituency, are condemned to the same fate as Kashmiri Pandits.

At least six people were injured in a clash between two communities at Rajaura in Begusarai on the day of Holi festival. The clash erupted after a minor tiff between children from two communities.

In addition to the differences between BJP and JD (U) over issues like grant of ‘special status category’ to Bihar, Nitish has also expressed his disapproval of Uttar Pradesh CM Yogi Adityanath’s new population control policy which aims at reducing UP’s population growth rate to 2.1 per cent over the next decade.

Nitish is of the firm view that no state needs a population control law to bring down fertility rates. He believes that encouraging education among girls will produce the desired results.

Earlier, Nitish had also opposed the National Population Register (NPR) and called for a debate on the contentious Citizenship (Amendment) Act or CAA.

Will the Bihar government survive?

The conflict arising out of a face-off between the CM and the speaker has been settled following the transfer of a Deputy Superintendent of Police (DSP), who was at the centre of the controversy in the entire Lakhisarai episode. The incident, however, bares the trust deficit between BJP and JD (U). If the alliance ever breaks, Nitish will be left with no option but to return to the Grand Alliance with Congress and Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD). In such a situation, there is only a remote possibility that RJD will accept him as a chief minister mainly because Tejashwi Yadav’s political graph has shown as upward trend after the RJD emerged as the single largest party in the last elections with 75 seats. So, Nitish has no option but to stay with NDA. The BJP too doesn’t have a choice because it has no leader who can match the stature of Nitish Kumar. Besides, the BJP won’t like to lose him before the crucial 2024 Lok Sabha elections.

Also read: Is Nitish Kumar’s fight for political relevance irrelevant?

Political analyst Amarnath Tewari said ‘The Kashmir Files’ has been declared tax free in Bihar under pressure from BJP. More interestingly, not the chief minister but deputy chief minister and senior BJP leader Tarkishore Prasad made an announcement to that effect. Tewari said Nitish has to accept all demands of the BJP because he is not ready to quit his CM post, wryly remarking that one should not forget ‘Nitish Kumar is also known as Kursi Kumar’.

After ‘The Kashmir Files’ was declared tax-free in Bihar, RJD vice-president Shivanand Tiwari accused Nitish of cooperating with the Narendra Modi government in driving a wedge between communities. “Nitish should have watched the film himself before his government declared it tax-free,” Tiwari said.

BJP has its own compulsions in keeping the alliance with JD (U) intact as the saffron party needs the support of the latter in the Presidential elections due in June-July this year.

Nitish shows aggression to counter BJP’s growing clout

BJP has played second fiddle to Nitish Kumar’s JD (U) without any fuss till the 2020 Bihar assembly elections. The saffron party, however, gained in confidence and started attacking Nitish and his government after the JD (U) was relegated to the third position in the last assembly election. BJP had bagged 74 seats in the election against JD (U)’s 43.

The BJP’s overwhelming success in the UP assembly election, mainly on its Hindutva plank, makes it believe it can form a government in Bihar on its own by whipping up the nationalist or Hindutva passion in addition to caste and development politics, observed a political analyst.

Also read: In Bihar, BJP tries to corner Nitish by holding its own janata durbars

Nitish is apprehensive of BJP firing on all cylinders to pursue its Hindutva politics in Bihar, as it paid rich dividends for the party in the UP elections. It could be the reason why Nitish went to this extreme while expressing his anger against speaker Vijay Kumar Sinha, not caring that it could dent his image as a polite and suave politician.

BJP may have a plan for Nitish

The rumour mill has been in overdrive that BJP may exert pressure on Nitish to shift to Delhi and vacate the CM chair for the party. It is also widely speculated that the BJP may offer the post of Vice-President to Nitish as the present incumbent Venkaiah Naidu will be completing his term in August.

Senior Bihar-based journalist Pushya Mitra said Nitish is not very enthusiastic about becoming Vice-President and he may think of relinquishing the post of the Chief Minister only if BJP offers him the post of President of India. Mitra said it is highly unlikely that the BJP will ever consider Nitish for the topmost constitutional post. The BJP would want a ‘confirmed loyalist’ to succeed the present incumbent Ram Nath Kovind.

Even if Nitish completes his full term as chief minister in 2025, BJP is expected to keep troubling Nitish in one way or the other with an intention to harm him politically. It will only help BJP to emerge as a formidable alternative in Bihar, which is the only state in Hindi heartland where the saffron party has not been able to form a government on its own so far.