Andhra Pradesh: Will BJP's strategy of allying with Pawan Kalyan pay off?

The Bharatiya Janata Party seems to be grooming Jana Sena leader Pawan Kalyan as a ‘third political force’ in Andhra Pradesh to help them emerge as a significant player in the state’s politics.

According to BJP sources, with an eye to split votes in the upcoming 2024 state assembly elections, the party is trying to pit actor turned politician Pawan Kalyan against the two dominant parties in the state.

Andhra Pradesh politics is now polarised between YSR Congress and Telugu Desam Party. BJP’s gameplan is to encourage Pawan to be able to wrest the vote-share of these parties and become a third force in the state. If Pawan succeeds in this, a hung assembly will be guaranteed and in such a situation ‘anything could be made to happen’, is the view of the BJP, according to party sources.

The BJP, which garnered less than one per cent vote share, sees a hung assembly as their chance to get a foothold in Andhra politics.

Increasing political mileage in Andhra

The BJP, which is currently in a unique position of being pursued by both the ruling and major Opposition parties, is devising this political strategy to shore up its stature in the state.

Currently, it has zero electoral chances in the state. BJP sources told The Federal that Pawan Kalyan of the Jana Sena Party is being groomed to emerge as a third force to achieve this objective.

Also read: NTR’s daughter Purandeswari as new BJP chief signals shift in caste dynamics in AP

The BJP is working on the premise that with NTR’s daughter Daggubati Purandeswari, a Kamma caste leader, as state president and Pawan Kalyan, a Kapu, by its side, it can alter the outcome of the 2024 elections in the two-party dominated state.

But, is Pawan Kalyan powerful enough to upset the political fortunes of YSR Congress and Telugu Desam Party and help deliver a hung assembly in the 2024 state polls? Party sources said a survey is being conducted to assess the sway Purandeswari and Pawan Kalyan have over the people in the state. The leadership will take a final call on the alliance based on the results, they stated.

Who will be BJP’s ally?

YSR Congress president and Chief Minister YS Jaganmohan Reddy, has become an undeclared ally of BJP, despite the former having absolute majority with 151 seats in a House of 175. TDP supremo N Chandrababu Naidu, who allied with Congress during the 2019 elections, openly declares at every forum that he is an admirer of Prime Minister Modi and his development model. And, actor-politician Pawan Kalyan, the founder of the third major party in AP Jana Sena, has changed to such an extent that he often speaks as if he is a member of the Sangh Parivar.

In this political scenario, the time has now come for the BJP to cut to the chase and take a stand on who the party wants to ally with in the 2024 national elections.

Signals from the party’s high command indicate that they have zeroed in on Pawan Kalyan as the right choice. They believe an alliance with Pawan Kalyan’s Jana Sena will bring them into the reckoning in the state’s politics. But Pawan wants TDP also to be part of the alliance as in 2014, while many in the BJP and Jana Sena want BJP and Pawan to fight the elections alone.

BJP insiders see Pawan’s invite to the NDA meeting in New Delhi on July 18 as a proof of this line of thinking.

“The ruling YSR Congress and the Opposition Telugu Desam Party are well-established regional parties. They never allowed BJP to grow in the state. The two major parties will remain as friends as long as the BJP is in power at the Centre. Their relationship with BJP is extra-political. On the other hand, Pawan Kalyan is an upcoming political force and harbours the dream of becoming CM. The BJP too needs a reliable ally like Pawan who has a strong caste backing,” the source told The Federal.

BJP state general secretary S Vishnuvardhan Reddy too said that BJP-Jan Sena will jointly fight the elections in 2024 as they have already entered into an alliance.

“As for an alliance with other parties such as TDP, the party will take a decision at an appropriate time and if necessary. Pawan has got an invitation to the NDA meeting by virtue of his being an ally of BJP,” pointed out Reddy, adding that the BJP-Jana Sena understanding has the potential to become an influential force in the state legislative assembly.

Also read: Pawan Kalyan’s Kapu caste trouble in battleground Andhra Pradesh

Destabilising Andhra politics

Commenting on this development, state Congress working president Dr N Tulasi Reddy, meanwhile said that BJP is always trying to destabilise the political situation in the state for its own benefit.

Dr Reddy said, “The BJP is trying to use Pawan Kalyan to achieve its objective to destabilise Andhra Politics. Where does Pawan stand in state politics? He is attracting headlines in pro-TDP media, as they thought he will align with TDP and help Chandrababu Naidu to defeat Jagan. His popularity is just hype. He is not accepted as a leader even by his own caste.  The moment Pawan clears the air and takes BJP’s side over TDP, Jana Sena Party will disappear from the news.”

Dr Reddy, however, did not rule out a hung assembly in Andhra, especially, if Congress sweeps the elections in the four states scheduled in December 2023. “If Congress wins three states out of four, the party will revive in the state and all those leaders who left or remained inactive will return. Such a scenario will definitely result in a hung assembly. If that happens the BJP in the Centre will not be able to exploit the situation,” observed Reddy.

For now, however, the BJP seems to be going ahead with its strategy of using Pawan Kalyan to help them get a foothold in Andhra politics.