Left, BJP slam Rahul’s Rae Bareli nomination, but Wayanad supporters haven’t lost heart yet

Rahul Gandhi's choice to run for office in both Rae Bareli, Uttar Pradesh and Wayanad doesn't come as a shock to voters and political figures in Kerala. Indeed, there was anticipation that he would run from his home turf, Amethi, where he previously lost to Smriti Irani. However, the workers in Wayanad, who tirelessly campaigned for him, don't appear to be disheartened.

‘Rahul needs to focus more on North India’

Baby Paulose, a local businessman from Pulpalli block in Wayanad, is a devoted supporter of Rahul. He has faithfully attended all of the leader's rallies and public gatherings in Wayanad over the past five years. While he hopes that Rahul won't abandon the constituency where he has garnered immense respect and a significant majority, Paulose is also cognisant of the possibility that the Congress leader might choose to step down from his Wayanad seat in case he wins from Rae Bareli.

“I’m not a Congress worker, but I've been following Rahul since 2019 when he was a candidate and now is an MP. He's the leader I think should lead the country. We're proud we elected him, but as a national leader, he might need to focus more on North India. I'm sure he'll win both seats, but I'm not sure if he'll get as many votes as he did in 2019 because the opposition candidate (Annie Raja) is also respected,” Baby tells The Federal.

“I am not very sure that I would vote for another Congress candidate, if a by-election comes, but who knows, maybe if it is Priyanka…” he stops abruptly.

What would Rahul’s ‘win’ in Rae Bareli mean for Wayanad seat?

The Congress in Kerala is yet to make an official statement about Rahul’s plans for the Wayanad seat after his filing of nomination form Uttar Pradesh, but its UDF partner Indian Union Muslim League (IUML) is very clear on its position.

IUML's national general secretary PK Kunhalikutty asserted that Rahul's decision to enter the fray from Rae Bareli would significantly bolster the electoral fortunes of the INDIA bloc. He defended Rahul's dual candidacy, stating that it was a strategic move to enhance the bloc's standing.

“We also had requested him to contest from another constituency in the north against BJP to strengthen the INDIA bloc's position. If a by-election takes place in Wayanad, the people of the constituency will celebrate Rahul's victory in Rae Bareli and that would lead to further increase in the victory margin,” added the Muslim League leader.

Wayanad people given a raw deal: LDF

The Left parties on the other hand maintained their stance that Rahul should have done this earlier and not contested in Wayanad. LDF candidate Raja asserted that Rahul treated the people of Wayanad unfairly by concealing his decision to contest from Rae Bareli until after the polls concluded in the Kerala Lok Sabha constituency.

“It’s true that in parliamentary elections, a candidate can run from two constituencies, but if they win both, they must resign from one, which would be unjust to the voters in that constituency. He should have fought from Amethi or Rae Bareli in Uttar Pradesh in the first place, and his standing here against us has already sent a negative message to the people,” she said.

However, CPI state secretary Binoy Viswam said that as an INDIA bloc member, his party would offer support to Rahul in Rae Bareli in his contest against the BJP. He said that the CPI had been emphasising that the Congress in Kerala lacked political foresight and had insisted against Rahul’s candidature from Wayanad, which it deemed a politically incorrect move. Viswam added that now the Congress had recognised this mistake and was rectifying it, adding that his party welcomes this as a correction.

According to BJP candidate K Surendran, Rahul has misled the people of Wayanad and Kerala, and his choice to contest from Rae Bareli rather than Amethi indicates his “cowardice”. “If he had contested from Amethi, then one would have said he was contesting to wrest back his seat. Instead, he is contesting from the sole seat where Congress won in the previous election,” Surendran said.

Priyanka on the standby?

On the ground, following a closely contested election, local-level politicians have begun speculating about the potential outcomes if Rahul were to win both seats. Within the UDF camp, there is a prevalent perception that Rahul should not forsake the constituency in favour of the North Indian seat, even though it's one his mother had previously represented for a significant period.

“We're not engaging in those discussions at the moment. The party leadership will make an appropriate decision when the time comes,” a Kerala Pradesh Congress Committee (KPCC) leader told The Federal.

“I have reasons to believe that he would not resign from Wayanad,” added the leader without disclosing further details. Many Congress leaders in Kerala are reluctant to see Rahul resign from Wayanad if he wins both seats, fearing it could have serious repercussions in the upcoming assembly polls, if not in the subsequent by-election.

The party is confident that it could persuade the IUML, especially by highlighting Priyanka Gandhi Vadra as a potential candidate if such a situation arises.

IUML eyes Wayanad seat

The IUML on the other hand, is all set to stake claim on the seat, if Rahul decides to quit after winning the seat.

“The general consensus is that the IUML deserves another seat or two from Kerala, and considering Wayanad is one of our strongholds, it would be fitting for the Congress to cede it to us if Rahul decides to resign after winning the seat. However, the party currently deems it inappropriate to make such claims at this point in time, and we will address the situation as it develops,” said a League leader.

The CPI(M), on the other hand, holds a different view, criticising Rahul for contesting against a secular ally instead of directly confronting the BJP. The party alleges that the Congress prohibited IUML workers from waving their green flags at Rahul's rallies, possibly in consideration of the Rae Bareli plans. The ruling party speculates that if Rahul were to win and resign from the seat, the Congress might field Priyanka here, and they are already devising a strategy to leverage this as a campaign point against the Grand Old Party.