Raj Thackeray chooses his side, but can the MNS walk the talk?

Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS) chief Raj Thackeray’s 57-minute speech, delivered on the occasion of Gudi Padwa last Saturday, seems to have brought the party back into the political limelight. In his speech, Raj accused the Shiv Sena, led by his cousin and Maharashtra Chief Minister Uddhav Thackeray, of diluting its Hindutva character. He also accused NCP chief Sharad Pawar of playing caste politics.

The MNS leader further demanded that the Sena-NCP-Congress coalition in the state remove loudspeakers from mosques — a demand recently made by several right-wing outfits, including the BJP. Else, he threatened, the MNS would place its own loudspeakers near mosques and play Hanuman Chalisa. This was not an empty threat. On Sunday, Ghatkopar police detained MNS functionary Mahendra Bhanushali for attempting the same.

Pro- and anti-Modi

Political flip-flops aren’t uncommon, but Raj’s rebranded Hindutva avatar — coming at a crucial time ahead of the upcoming civic election in Mumbai — has a history. MNS was created in 2006 after a power struggle between Raj and Uddhav, son of Shiv Sena founder Balasaheb Thackeray. An ardent supporter of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Raj was all praise for Modi’s style of governance in Gujarat in 2011. The following year, he was a guest at Modi’s swearing-in. In the run-up to the 2014 Lok Sabha election, the MNS chief publicly backed Modi to become Prime Minister.

But things changed in 2019. Raj seemed to have taken a U-turn. During his speech, he accused Modi of following in Adolf Hitler’s footsteps and showed short video clips mocking Modi’s pre-2014 promises. “I am replaying these videos at meetings so that you don’t forget when you vote,” he said, speaking in Kamothe. “You have to decide if you want dictatorship or democracy in the country.”

A few months later, in August, Raj was slapped with an Enforcement Directorate notice. The ED was probing him in connection with alleged irregularities related to IL&FS group’s loan and equity investment in Kohinoor CTNL of up to Rs 860 crore. He was grilled at the ED office in South Mumbai for nearly eight hours.

During the Maharashtra Assembly polls later that year, Raj turned down his rhetoric against the BJP. In January 2020, he unveiled the MNS’ new party flag, replacing the earlier blue, white, orange and green one with a new saffron one. It also carried the administrative seal of Chhatrapati Shivaji. Since then, the MNS has also toned down its aggressive stance toward North Indians.

Raj’s bend towards Hindutva ideology seems to be a political strategy to occupy a space that it considers the Shiv Sena has conceded due to its coalition with the NCP and Congress. The BJP, too, hopes to gain a portion of Marathi votes via the MNS. However, all this depends on how Raj’s party performs in the upcoming Mumbai corporation election.

Changing with times

Speaking with The Federal, MNS spokesperson Sandip Deshpande said: “For the last two years, Raj saheb has been silent — he was just observing everything. Now, he is speaking in front of people after a two-year gap. He has spoken on various issues, such as how the MVA government was formed, how it has deceived people, and corruption in the BMC…Azan is only one part of it…it is not the main issue although everybody is portraying it that way.”

Referring to Raj’s Gudi Padwa speech, he said: “I feel the line is very clear…where we have to go. A clear indication has been given by him in his speech. It shows people what the MNS’ agenda is and the route we are going to take our party on in the future and on what issues we are going to highlight.” He also said that so far, an official alliance between the BJP and MNS for the BMC election is not on the cards.

Deshpande said that when the MNS flag was changed, “Raj saheb had made it very clear that we are on the Hindutva line.” The MNS’ Hindutva avatar “is not new,” he added. “It’s just that the party is bringing it to the forefront now. You have to change according to the situation.”

Sena hits back

“He (Raj Thackeray) is totally exposed now,” Manisha Kayande, spokesperson for the Shiv Sena, told The Federal. “He seems to be changing his colours quite often, right from the changing of the MNS flag…these are very minor changes but carry a lot of meaning. He is now trying to board the Hindutva train and has changed tack on his 2019 allegations against the BJP.”

Kayande said the ED notice served to Raj played a crucial role in him changing his tune. “Nobody knows what happened with that ED investigation…the ED has been silent on it. So maybe something was about to come out and he (Raj) had to take up this role. Now that the BJP cannot speak up, they are talking through his him,” she said, adding, “He is trying to catch the Hindutva train but he isn’t successful and is being heavily trolled and criticised over it.”

Rebutting claims, that the Sena had been diluting its Hindutva character ever since it entered into a coalition with the Congress and NCP in the state, Kayande said the Sena’s brand of Hindutva is different than either of the two parties (MNS and BJP). “Our Hindutva is very practical. It doesn’t mean appeasement of Muslims… but now that the MVA government is working on a common minimum programme, we have to work for all the people,” she said.

When asked if the Sena was threatened by the emergence of the MNS which could potentially split the Marathi vote, thus favouring the BJP, she said: “Not at all. In fact, now the Marathi manoos will see that he (Raj) has no content. When he had got the ED notice in 2019, Uddhav ji stood by him…but now he is openly criticising his brother who is the CM. Many people are appreciating Uddhav ji for his demeanour. Not only Hindus but Muslims also are appreciating him not because he has gone soft on Hindutva — but because he stands by Hindutva and still wants to deliver the goods to all the people.”

Entertainment, entertainment

Kayande dismissed Raj’s Gudi Padwa speech in one word: “Entertainment, entertainment, entrainment.” She claimed that a day after Raj delivered his speech, Pune MNS chief Vasant More refused to play Hanuman Chalisa in front of mosques, saying that many members of the Muslim community vote for him.” On Thursday, More was removed from his post for not following Raj’s call.

One thing is though clear: Raj’s speech has managed to evoke reactions from across the political spectrum, from Sharad Pawar, Uddhav and Aaditya Thackeray to Sanjay Raut and Supriya Sule. He even got a pat on the back from BJP leaders Devendra Fadnavis and Chandrakant Patil. His meetings with senior BJP leaders have also strengthened speculation of a mutual understanding between the two parties.

“The reactions came because people were laughing at him,” scorns Kayande. “If he was genuinely bothered for the people, he would’ve spoken about issues that affect the common man, like rising fuel prices, unemployment, etc. But…it (the speech) was only criticising the Sena and Uddhav ji. It looked like it was scripted by the BJP.”

The old Chanakyan logic

“I would look at developments in Maharashtra and Mumbai in particular as reflecting the dynamics of coalition politics in the state,” said political analyst Sandeep Shastri. “The BJP is trying to make up for whatever loss it has suffered because of the Shiv Sena exiting, and they feel through the MNS they could to bring in what was earlier a Shiv Sena vote.”

Raj had always used the Hindutva card “very stridently”, Shastri said. “If you look at the politics of Uddhav and compare it to the politics of Raj, Raj has always been assertive on these issues. Now, what has happened is that it has become difficult for the Shiv Sena to take a very strong position (on Hindutva) because it is part of an alliance with the NCP and Congress. Therefore, Raj is trying to carve out that space for himself. This also helps the BJP in making up for the alliance that it once had with the Sena.”

But, given the MNS’ declining vote share in the state ever since 2014, what kind of help could it possible provide the BJP with, apart from grandstanding rhetoric? “There is both a value and a nuisance value,” said Shastri. “If somebody is going to help you deal with an open hand, not necessarily to get anything back in return, it eminently suits the BJP. This is the old Chanakyan logic: The enemy of your enemy is your friend.”

The upcoming BMC election may be a test for the MNS, Shastri pointed out, but it actually is more of a test for the BJP. “Will the BJP use this opportunity to get MNS on their shoulders and have them fire arrows at the Shiv Sena — and in turn, take the benefit themselves? The benefit for the MNS will be in its fight for the Mumbai municipal corporation, which has been the strength of the Sena in terms of power and resources. Mumbai is also the birthplace of the MNS. In a sense, BJP already made inroads last time and if it makes further inroads thanks to the MNS, it would be a situation that could become difficult for the Sena to handle.”