Worried about BJP's growing clout, TRS may advance polls in Telangana

The talk of early polls in Telangana has resurfaced after the Munugode by-election. Even as the Assembly elections are scheduled to be held in December 2023, there is widespread speculation in political circles about the possibility of the state going to polls earlier, after the closely fought Munugode by-election.

The general body meeting of Telangana Rashtra Samiti (TRS), to be held on November 15 is being viewed as a step by the party in this direction. Members of the party’s state executive committee, MPs, MLAs, and MLCs have been asked to attend the meeting that will be chaired by Chief Minister K Chandrasekar Rao (KCR) himself.

As usual, the agenda for the meeting has not been communicated to the party leaders. But, many party leaders felt that the meeting is all set to pave the path for some historic decision that will unfold in December or January. This development is largely the outcome of recent events in the state: One being the fierce fight the TRS had to put up in the Munugode by-election; secondly, BJP’s alleged attempt to bribe TRS MLAs to make them switch loyalties and thirdly, the possibility of BJP consolidating their presence in the state and align with the Left parties.

Much to the chagrin of the ruling party of Telangana, the Munugode by-election results have exposed the chinks in the TRS’ armour rather than helping the party to establish its numero uno position in the state.

Also read: Munugode by-poll holds blueprint for future of Telangana politics

For the first time, the TRS had to share their win with the Left parties. The Left parties, who lost their sheen in Telangana politics after the formation of the state in 2014, have celebrated the victory more vigorously than the TRS. The TRS vote share of 43 per cent in Munugode was not in tune with the party’s expectation, which had expected to bag a 53 per cent share.

Despite providing numerous welfare schemes, the party had to spend huge money and deploy the entire cabinet and the MLAs to win the elections. This drove home the fact that the TRS’s voter base was being slowly eroded. The party supporters also acknowledged in private that the Munugode election clearly demonstrated that the party’s influence in the state is declining and strongly felt that further damage needs to be arrested.

The BJP instead of being crestfallen after the defeat is trying to reshape its strategy following its defeat in Munugode. Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who visited the state to dedicate the Ramagundam Fertiliser plant to the nation on November 12, sought to enthuse the party cadre by repeatedly stating that the corrupt persons from Telangana will not be spared. It’s clear that he was hinting at the names from the state that have cropped up in the Delhi liquor scam.

And the PM’s assurance that the Singareni Colleries Company Limited (SCCL) will not be privatised is being seen as an attempt by the BJP to win over the 50,000 employees of the company. Sources in BJP said the party is planning another assault on TRS to compensate for the loss in Munugode.

The public meeting organised at Ramagundam for the PM, by mobilising farmers and workers from 24 Assembly constituencies that fall in the coal belt area, is clearly an indication in that direction. BJP Party sources told The Federal, “The election to SCCL recognised employees union is due in December/January. Now the union affiliated with TRS is the recognised entity in SCCL. Our plan is to wrest it from TRS. Controlling the SCCL-recognised trade union will go a long way in tilting the balance in favour of BJP in these 24 Assembly segments.”

Also read: RSS ‘brokers’ sought to buy four TRS MLAs, with Modi’s blessings: KCR

However, a TRS MLA, who prefers to remain anonymous, told The Federal that an early election is a distinct possibility. “We have seen how BJP had tried to destabilise Telangana by imposing a by-election in Munugode. When the Munugode election campaign was at its peak, the BJP conspired to bribe the TRS MLAs through brokers. It shows BJP’s desperation to create political instability in the state. So, an early poll looks like an apt reply to pre-empt BJP’s future game plan in Telangana,” pointed out the TRS MLA.

Prof Tirumali Inukonda, a Telangana political commentator, also doesn’t rule out the possibility of an early election in the state. Prof Tirumali, who retired from Delhi University, is the author of many books on Telangana politics and caste dynamics. He was the chairman of the joint action committee (JAC) of the Federation of Peoples’ Organisation during the Telangana movement.

According to Prof Tirumali, the TRS has lost respect among many sections of the people, while the BJP has firmed up its position as a force.

Prof Inukonda told The Federal, “The Telangana sentiment is no longer at play in Telangana. People, especially the youth, are unhappy with and critical of TRS.  The schemes such as Rythu Bandhu have generated an equal measure of dissatisfaction among the small and marginal farmers as well as the tenant farmers.”

Further, he added, the backward class (BC) voters though not consolidated as a unified force can swing to any side since the influence of the Telangana sentiment or Hindutva ideology are not strong in the state.

“There is a clear disconnect between the TRS and the BC and SC voters due to many factors. After this Munugode defeat, the BJP, which has succeeded to some extent in north Telangana, will be forced to adopt a new strategy for south Telangana to come closer to these sections. Early polls are an option for CM KCR to prevent further erosion of his popularity and to stop BJP consolidating its base in the state,” pointed out Prof Tirumali.