Will unhappy Karnataka marriage end in divorce?

Say Karnataka and the first question that comes up is: how long will the government last?A month after the Lok  Sabha election results,  the ruling Congress and Janata Dal (Secular) alliance is still to recover from  a shock performance that saw its numbers touch a new nadir.

Of the 28 seats, each got just one, the remaining going into the Bharatiya Janata Party’s kitty. And that is something that the Congress-JD(S) leadership is unable to digest. While each would like to divorce the other,  from a practical point of view both realise they are stuck to each other in an unhappy marriage.

If they do go their separate ways, they stand to lose being in power.  And, there is nothing in sight for them over the remaining four years of the term. So, they may as well run the government for want of doing anything better.

Unfortunately, though they probably realise this, experienced leaders like former prime minister HD Deve Gowda of the JD(S), his son Chief Minister H D Kumaraswamy and Congress ex-chief minister Siddaramaiah among others are unable to control their frustration and perplexity at the situation they are in.

For, on paper,  the coalition was expected to sweep the elections — such was their combined theoretical might.  Instead the alliance all but crashed and each would like to blame the other for the result.

At the same time, the criticism cannot go beyond a point as that would mean breaking the alliance.

That is the reason for the umpteen flip-flops,  U-turns and a blow hot blow cold type situation that has almost turned the relationship into a farce.

One would have expected someone like Gowda or Siddaramaiah to sit with each other and decide whether they are going together or separating  and then, based on their decision, move forward. Instead the seniors seem to be floundering and in a state of ennui.

For the state Congress, which during crisis normally looked up to the party high command seeking a way out,  this time around it is different. The central Congress leadership itself is mired in dilemma unable to come to terms with its disastrous electoral performance.

Rahul Gandhi whose idea it was to stitch the coalition is in no mood to settle squabbles while the other veterans in Delhi are caught up in an existential crisis, and effectively unable to do much.

As a result,  the Congress-JD(S) in Karnataka is akin to a rudderless ship caught in the turbulent waves of uncertainty and undecided whether to steady the ship or commit hara-kiri. The alliance partners fully realise that a shark (or a lifeboat, depending on the perspective) in the form of the BJP is waiting to swallow/accept any legislator wishing to jump ship.

The BJP has publicly repeated that it will not actively poach any legislator and will instead wait for the coalition to implode. But this is hard to believe given the eagerness with which the BJP has been eyeing Karnataka’s gaddi since the May 2018 Assembly election when it fell despairingly nine seats short of the majority mark of 113.

There are indications that the BJP is quietly searching for weak spots in the alliance leading to occasional outbursts from legislators belonging to the Congress or the JD(S).

For instance, experienced Congress legislator and multi-time state minister Roshan Baig’s unexpected criticism of his own party leadership calling party observer K C Venugopal a buffoon,  state party president Dinesh Gundo Rao immature and Siddaramaiah as arrogant rattled the party. This was followed by photographs in social media of Baig with BJP central minister Mukhtar Abbas Naqvi leading to speculation whether he was going to quit.

For the record, Baig has been suspended by the party pending an explanation from him.

More recently,  Kumaraswamy during his ongoing village stay claimed that the BJP was actively seeking out the ruling alliance’s legislators.

For the BJP,  the wait to take over government is turning into  a test of patience. After the May 23 election results,  few expected the ruling alliance to last even this long.But, with all the bickering nothing dramatic has happened as yet.

So much so,  BJP state president B S Yeddyurappa even hinted at a possible mid-term election only to quickly backtrack.The reason for this is no one is really sure what will happen in the event of an Assembly election. While no doubt the BJP is in pole position and will most probably make it,  the electoral dynamics in a state elections is far different from that of a parliamentary poll.

In the just-concluded Lok Sabha elections,  Prime Minister Narendra Modi turned out to be the only issue. But, in the Assembly elections, that will not be the case.

No surprise if the thinking in the BJP is to get to power in an easier way, which is to make up the eight seats (it recently increased its tally winning one by-election) and cross the majority. More action and a culmination to the uncertainty can be expected in the coming days and weeks with the BJP hoping it won’t stretch into months.

But don’t put it past the alliance to survive longer than anticipated. After all, haven’t we seen long record partnerships for the 10th wicket in cricket?