Wary Delhi watching Dhaka as trouble brews for Sheikh Hasina govt

Bangladesh’s Islamist Opposition has announced the beginning of a movement to oust the ruling Awami League from power. At a rally held in Dhaka’s Golap Bagh on December 10, leaders of the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) said their lawmakers would resign from the parliament immediately.

They demanded that Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina step down immediately to pave the way for fresh elections but under a neutral caretaker administration comprising credible civil society personalities.

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The BNP says the present Election Commission is not an independent body but an extension of the government and cannot ensure free and fair polls. It had earlier threatened to run a “parallel government in the country from the streets” under its leader Begum Khaleda Zia.

Much ado over venue

The UN and the US called on the Awami League government to respect the Opposition’s right of political assembly and allow rallies after the government refused to allow the BNP to hold the December 10 rally at Naya Paltan in front of the party headquarters.

Senior Bangladesh police officials told The Federal the government had asked the BNP to hold the rally on Dhaka’s most spacious grounds, the Suhrawardy Udyan. That is where all big political rallies are held because it has a huge holding capacity. The government said no city police would allow rallies in business districts or administrative nerve-centres for fear of traffic disruptions and the problems it could cause. Finally, the BNP held its rally in Golap Bagh with police permission.

BNP hopes dashed

But the BNP and its allies found their high hopes slightly punctured when the US state department did not issue any fresh sanction against any Bangladesh official or institution in the list announced just before the December 10 rally. The fresh list of sanctions include scores of entities and individuals, including an Indian national.

Since the US sanctions against Bangladesh’s elite Rapid Action Battalion (RAB) and seven of its former and serving officials in December 2021, the BNP-led Opposition’s movement against the ruling Awami League government has got a big boost. The sanctions were seen as effective in restraining the top brass of Bangladesh police and security services from resorting to a tough crackdown against Opposition activists. Many Opposition figures had gone to town claiming fresh US sanctions were on their way against more officials.

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Since that did not happen and Hasina sounded unusually belligerent when she asked party cadres to “break the arm that tries to strike you,” the Opposition can expect tough responses if they resort to a violent street movement.

Hasina was also bolstered by huge turnouts at some of her rallies, like a recent one in the port city of Chittagong. It drew large crowds as the Awami League swung its tested party machinery into action to counter the Opposition agitation.

But with many Western diplomats and those from Islamic countries trying to pressure Hasina into conceding key Opposition demands, such as polls under a neutral caretaker, the Prime Minister seems to be counting on neighbours India and China to deflect the global pressure.

India in a spot

The impending and inevitable political confrontation in Bangladesh puts India in a tight spot. With the US apparently leading the charge for the protection of democracy (which the Awami League dismisses as a euphemism for regime change), Indian efforts to shield traditional ally Hasina’s Awami League will draw it into a confrontation with Washington. With clouds of conflict in the Himalayas, it remains to be seen whether it would be possible for Delhi to oppose Washington firmly on a key regional issue.

But if Delhi fails to defend Hasina, fears of her drawing closer to China cannot be wished away —  already, China is a leading trade partner and source of development assistance for Bangladesh. India can never afford losing a tested regional ally like Hasina, having already suffered loss of influence elsewhere in South Asia. It cannot afford major complications with strategic partner US with the looming confrontation with China not quite going away anytime soon.

That the Opposition agitation comes amid India’s ongoing cricket tour of Bangladesh further complicates matters for Delhi.

For India, Hasina matters

If the Opposition agitation makes much headway, the BNP may try driving home the message that Hasina can no longer deliver and India should shift choices. For some in the ruling BJP, the temptation of not putting all eggs in one basket cannot be ruled out. Atal Bihari Vajpayee’s experience with the BNP-Jamaat-e-Islami coalition government (2001–06) has so far deterred Narendra Modi from trying the multiple-basket formula in Bangladesh. 

India’s support for the Awami League government was evident during the 2014 and 2018 polls, which led the Bangladeshi Opposition to allege that Hasina could stay in power only because of strong support from India.

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India would be happy if Hasina continues in Dhaka, and would not like to see her getting any closer to China. So, Delhi would expect the traditional pro-Indian old guards and middle-class Bengali nationalists to helm the Awami League rather than mercantile nouveau riche politicians trading with China and increasingly trying to augment Beijing’s influence in the ruling party.

Awami League holds its national council on December 24, Delhi would closely watch whether pro-Indian elements find themselves on top or out of favour. That is one factor among the many that will influence Modi’s Bangladesh policy in the run-up to the polls in that country. But Hasina will also need to resist temptations of playing the soft Islamic card to trump the BNP-Jamaat coalition because that can undermine the very ethos of the party.

(Subir Bhaumik is a former BBC correspondent and author on South Asian conflicts.)

(The Federal seeks to present views and opinions from all sides of the spectrum. The information, ideas or opinions in the articles are of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Federal)