ICMR disowns study claiming COVID-19 to peak mid-November

India’s top medical body ICMR on Monday (June 15) disowned a study that claims the peak stage of COVID-19 pandemic in the country has been delayed by the eight-week lockdown and may now arrive around mid-November.

The Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR) termed as misleading the news reports that attributed the study to the medical body, and said the study was neither carried out by it nor does it reflect the official position of the ICMR.

“The news reports attributing this study to ICMR are misleading. This refers to a non peer reviewed modelling, not carried out by ICMR and does not reflect the official position of ICMR,” said the top medical body in a tweet on Monday.

A report by news agency Press Trust of India had claimed on Sunday that the study was conducted by researchers from an Operations Research Group constituted by ICMR.

The report quoted the study as saying that the lockdown shifted the peak of the pandemic by an estimated 34 to 76 days and helped bring down the number of infections by 69 to 97 per cent thereby allowing time for the healthcare system to shore up resources and infrastructure.

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“In the scenario of intensified public health measures with 60 per cent effectiveness after lockdown, the demand can be met until the first week of November. After that, isolation beds could be inadequate for 5.4 months, ICU beds for 4.6 and ventilators for 3.9 months, projections by the health researchers showed,” the report read.

“However, this shortfall is estimated to be 83 per cent less than what it could have been without the lockdown and public health measures,” it added.

Reports suggest the study has been withdrawn.