Are Boris Johnson’s days at Downing Street numbered?

British Prime Minister Boris Johnson is seen to have failed an acid test for his leadership with the loss of the Conservative party in the North Shropshire by-election last week —a seat that the party had held for two centuries. The Liberal Democrats won the Tory stronghold by a margin of nearly 6,000 votes.

Coming on top of widespread anger and discontent over his rule, political analysts as well as senior Conservative MPs think Johnson’s days at No 10, Downing Street may be numbered. Among the issues plaguing the nation, which just voted itself out of the EU, are rising COVID cases, surging prices, tax increases, and Brexit-related issues.

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The party is headed for local elections in May 2022, before which it wants to get the house in order. The PM is reportedly being told by his party colleagues that he gets three or four months to turn the situation around; else he will be replaced.

Resignation of Lord David Frost

The rebellion within the party is making the situation worse for Johnson. Brexit Minister Sir David Frost, a senior Cabinet member, resigned on Saturday night. In his resignation letter addressed to Johnson, he noted that the process of leaving the EU is a long-term job. “That is why we agreed earlier this month that I would move on in January and hand over the baton to others to manage our future relationship with the EU,” he said.

Lord Frost is leaving the government because he is a conservative and true Brexiteer. Boris Johnson is neither.

— Nigel Farage (@Nigel_Farage) December 18, 2021

However, the Mail on Sunday said earlier he quit over disillusionment with Johnson’s policies. What particularly triggered the move was the UK government’s introduction of new COVID restrictions last week, it said. People are now required to show either proof of vaccination or a negative COVID report to enter crowded venues such as nightclubs.

Frost, who believes the UK needs to “learn to live with Covid”, said in his letter: “You took a brave decision in July, against considerable opposition, to open up the country again. Sadly, it did not prove to be irreversible, as I wished, and believe you did too. I hope we can get back on track soon and not be tempted by the kind of coercive measures we have seen elsewhere.”

Boris Johnson on Thursday:
“I follow the rules”

Yesterday: pic.twitter.com/UMucs5ws27

— David Schneider (@davidschneider) December 18, 2021

While many in the Conservative party feel the Omicron case surge calls for united action, and that Johnson should therefore be given greater time and leeway, quite a few disagree. There is strong suspicion that he will never really change.

From pharmacies to stadiums, we’re jabbing arms up and down the country.

We’re throwing everything at this virus.

Wherever you are, we’ll be there with a jab for you.

So please Get Boosted Now. pic.twitter.com/9n3tWU4SEm

— Boris Johnson (@BorisJohnson) December 19, 2021

Last week, Conservative leader Sir Roger Gale said he had sent his letter to Sir Graham Brady, chair of the 1922 committee of Tory backbenchers. Under party rules, if the committee chairman receives 54 letters in favour of a vote of no confidence, Johnson will have to face the vote. Dissenting MPs feel ousting Johnson will convince the public that the party per se is willing to work on issues such as escalating prices and rising tax burden, apart from handling the COVID and Brexit situations better.