If the exit polls for the eight states of the Northeast are an indicator – and they do come true on May 23 – the BJP is all set to improve its tally in Assam in the Lok Sabha polls. The party had won seven out of the 14 constituencies in Assam in 2014.
Assam had been a Congress stronghold until 2014. However, by 2016, that the Congress was decimated and the BJP came to power for the first time in Assam Assembly elections. Since then the BJP has succeeded in making inroads in all the other northeastern states.
Exit poll predictions
According to NDTV’s poll of polls, BJP and alliance (AGP and BPF) will get 9; Congress 3 and Others 2.
BJP+: 8-10; Congress 2-4; AIUDF 2; others 0.
BJP+: 7-13; 0-6; others 0-2
Times Now-CNX exit poll predicted that Congress and the AIUDF together are likely to win 7 seats in Assam, BJP 6 and others may get one seat.
As per Republic-C voter survey, BJP may win 7 seats, Congress 5 and others may get one of the 14 parliamentary constituencies in Assam.
India Today-Axis My India
However, if India Today-Axis My India predictions are to be believed, the BJP will win a minimum of 12 and a maximum of 14 seats in Assam. While the Congress may win two seats, AIUDF and other parties will get zero seats.
Other northeastern states
According to News18-IPSOS, the NDA is expected to win the majority, cornering 17-19 of the 25 seats in the region, with the Congress emerging victorious from four to six constituencies.
According to News Nation, NDA will get 6 seats; Congress 3 and others 2 in 11 of 25 seats across Northeast, excluding Assam.
India Today-Axis My India predicted that Congress may win the single Lok Sabha seat in Mizoram.
For Meghalaya, the same India Today-Axis My India predicted that Congress may get one seat while regional parties are likely to get the other seat in Meghalaya.
In Arunachal, the BJP will win both the Lok Sabha seats in Arunachal Pradesh, according to India Today-Axis My India Exit Poll.
As per ABP Nielsen survey, of the total 25 seats in the Northeast, BJP+ may win 13 parliamentary seats while Congress and others may bag six each.
Number of seats won in 2014
In 2014, BJP won seven seats in Assam, Congress won three, AIUDF won three while one seat was won by an independent. In Meghalaya, out of the two seats, the Congress and the NPP won one each. In Arunachal Pradesh, Congress and BJP won one each. The Congress won both the seats in Manipur. In Tripura, both seats were won by the Left. While the Nagaland People’s Party (NPF) won the the single Lok Sabha seat in Nagaland, the Congress won the seat in Mizoram.
Even though the NPF is part of the BJP-led NEDA, it has has declared to support the Congress Lok Sabha candidate in Nagaland this time around. In a recent development, the NPF has said it will pull out of BJP-led Manipur government after Lok Sabha polls. In 2014, Sikkim voted for the Sikkim Democratic Party, which won the single seat in the state. The SDP and the NPP are part of the NEDA and NDA.