France favourites for 2026 FIFA World Cup, Brazil prospects bleak: Reuters poll

France are tipped to beat Spain and win the World Cup on July 19, while five-time champions Brazil are expected to be the biggest underachievers, according to a Reuters poll of economists who admitted football remains tougher to predict than inflation.

For the 160 respondents from almost every continent, the survey conducted once every four years offered a welcome diversion from macroeconomic forecasting at a time marked by wars, energy shocks and renewed debates over whether inflation is temporary or long-lasting.

France tipped for glory

Their assignment this time centred on the biggest World Cup in history – a 48-team competition featuring 104 matches across the United States, Canada and Mexico, and the first edition to be hosted jointly by three countries.

Also read | FIFA World Cup 2026 full schedule, venues, times in IST, live TV, streaming details

Les Bleus secured 35% of the vote in the May 11-June 5 poll to claim a third World Cup title, narrowly ahead of Spain on 31% – closely mirroring predictions on betting platforms such as Polymarket – in a result that would keep Europe at the summit of international football.

France coach Didier Deschamps would become the first one since Italy’s Vittorio Pozzo in 1938 to win two World Cups, and the only one to achieve the feat after also winning the tournament as a player in 1998.

Defending champions Argentina, currently ranked number one in the FIFA standings, along with Portugal and England, completed the top five selections.

“After the disappointment of the 2022 final, France looks well equipped to go one better this time,” Cathal Kennedy, senior economist at RBC, based in London, told Reuters.

“The squad retains a number of members of the team that reached the final who are now entering the prime years of their careers, alongside the emergence of several players from the Paris St Germain side.”

“Added to that, they should have a well-rested Kylian Mbappe available for the tournament.”

Mbappe tops award predictions

Mbappe, who has just wrapped up another prolific campaign with Real Madrid, was the leading choice in the poll for both the Golden Ball, awarded to the tournament’s best player, and the Golden Boot for top scorer.

He narrowly edged England captain Harry Kane, who claimed the European Golden Shoe after a career-best 61-goal season with Bayern Munich.

There’s likely another milestone within reach for both. Mbappe and Kane, with 12 and eight World Cup goals respectively, are among those chasing German legend Miroslav Klose’s all-time record of 16, alongside Lionel Messi, who has 13.

There were also a few romantics. Two respondents backed Japan, while one each picked Mexico and Morocco – outcomes that would create a World Cup fairytale – among the 8% who said loyalty influenced their choices. A dominant 73% said they relied on instinct.

“As with any model, the forecast was adjusted with a heavy dose of gut feel!” joked Shannon Bold, senior economist at the Bureau of Economic Research in Johannesburg.

About 20% said they based their predictions on data and models. “The macroeconomists sat around together and created a house view,” said Claudio Govender at RMB.

But the outlook for Brazil was far less encouraging.

Underdogs and rising stars

Even the appointment of Carlo Ancelotti as coach has done little to boost confidence, with nearly a third identifying the Selecao – quarter-finalists eliminated by Croatia in 2022 – as the traditional powerhouse most likely to disappoint, followed by England and Germany.

Norway, led by Manchester City striker Erling Haaland, could provide the surprise element, with 21% selecting them as the underdogs most likely to exceed expectations, ahead of Japan on 15%.

The race to identify breakout stars was wide open. Respondents spread their votes across 46 players, but Spain’s 18-year-old forward Lamine Yamal received the most support.

France’s Mike Maignan, Argentina’s Emiliano Martinez and Spain’s Unai Simon were among the leading contenders for the Golden Glove, awarded to the tournament’s best goalkeeper.

‘Inflation easier to predict’

Away from the action on the field, organisers are preparing for a major logistical challenge as millions of fans are expected to travel to North America, with affordability already emerging as a contentious issue.

Also read | FIFA World Cup 2026 may see less Indian spectators at venues: Report

High ticket prices, accommodation costs and cross-country travel expenses have fuelled concerns that this could become the most expensive World Cup ever for supporters.

So much for taking a break from inflation.

More than 60% said inflation in 2026 was still easier to forecast than the outcome of football’s biggest tournament – although recent years have made that a modest benchmark.

“We know when the World Cup is going to end,” said Ozan Can Turkmen of Turkey's Sekerbank. “On the other hand, the energy supply crisis...”