Inflation data, Fed interest rate decision to drive markets this week: Analysts

The inflation data for May and the US Fed interest rate decision are the crucial factors that would dictate terms in the equity market this week, analysts said.

Moreover, foreign fund trading activity, movement of rupee and crude oil prices would be the other key monitarables for the markets, they added.

“All eyes will be on the US FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) decision scheduled on June 15, and the market is fearing aggressive rate hikes amid inflation monster. Bank of Japan will also announce its credit policy on June 17.

“It will be crucial to see FIIs behaviour amid panic in global equity markets because they are selling relentlessly for the last 8 months,” according to Santosh Meena, Head of Research, Swastika Investmart Ltd.

On the domestic front, CPI inflation will be announced on June 13 and WPI on June 14, he added.  “Apart from this, movement of rupee and crude oil will be other important factors,” Meena noted.

We expect volatility to remain high this week as well, given the list of important data and events, said Ajit Mishra, VP – Research, Religare Broking Ltd.

“Participants will first react to the US inflation, hitting a new 40-year high and also to the IIP data, which came in after market hours on Friday.  “Going ahead, we have CPI and WPI inflation scheduled on June 13 and June 14, respectively. On the global front, the outcome of the US Fed meeting will be out on June 15,”  Mishra added.

Markets are again reeling under tremendous pressure across the globe following sticky inflation that could prompt swift actions by the apex banks ahead, analysts said.

Siddhartha Khemka, Head – Retail Research, Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd, said the market is stuck in a broader range for the last one month, which is expected to continue until any clear direction emerges on either side.  Last week, the 30-share BSE benchmark tumbled 1,465.79 points or 2.62 per cent.  “Globally, Feds interest rate decision, as well as volatility in crude price, will keep market anxious. Back home, CPI and WPI inflation print will be the main headliner this week,” said Yesha Shah, Head of Equity Research, Samco Securities.

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