Protests, pandemic, polls to overshadow Budget Session

The Economic Survey, to be tabled in the Parliament on Friday, is scheduled to chronicle how Indian economy slid into unprecedented recession after the COVID lockdown, but the opposition and treasury benches in Lok Sabha as well as Rajya Sabha seem to be occupied with the slanging match over the controversial farm laws and the two-month agitation by farmers.

Similarly, the 2021-22 Budget, to be presented by Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman on February 1, is to reveal the Modi government’s recipe for lifting the economy out of a once-in-a-century crisis caused by the pandemic, but political discourse of the Budget Session is all set to stay on the row over minimum support price, government procurement of foodgrains and apprehensions over corporates bulldozing farmers in contract farming.

The ongoing discussions among Congress and other opposition parties indicate the keenness for co-ordinated action to put the Modi government on the mat over the three farm laws, rather than demanding answers to the nagging questions on economic recession, growing unemployment, and the gloom faced by small industries.

Opposition parties feel that the government is on the backfoot over the farmers’ agitation and, therefore, is planning to go all out right from the outset — President Ram Nath Kovind’s address to both Houses on January 29, the first day of the first Parliament session of 2021.

We will not relent till the government agrees to roll back the controversial farm laws, an opposition MP explained. Efforts are now on for co-ordinated action by opposition parties to corner Team Narendra Modi on this burning issue and the violence erupting from the tractor rally on Republic Day is all set to add fuel to fire. It is expected that the President’s address will contain references to the initiatives taken for welfare of farmers and the opposition plans to register its criticism from the first day of the Budget session.

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Written assurance on continuation of government procurement and the existing system of minimum support price (MSP) could be other points of discussion as issues facing the farm community are set to get priority in the Parliament due to its political sensitivity at the current juncture. Unemployment and livelihood concerns of others including migrant labourers and small businesses may have to wait for their day of glory in the temple of democracy.

Ready for discussion: On its part, the government is ready for discussion on the farmers’ protest that has been going on at several borders of Delhi for the past two months, subject to important official agenda for the session going on smoothly — President’s Address and Presentation of Budget. The Motion of Thanks to the President’s Address will give the first opportunity for discussing contentious issues, a BJP MP said. NDA members feel the Supreme Court has appointed a committee to look into the laws and the opposition should have patience. In any case, we have offered to put the three laws on hold for one-and-a-half years and talks are on with farmers, the MP added.

The Supreme Court has already put the laws on hold for the time being and the government plans to stand firm on not rolling them back. The NDA counter-attack on the issue could be the violence at Red Fort and other parts of the capital like the key ITO crossing that left one dead and hundreds injured on Republic Day as the tractor rally entered the city in violation of the agreement with Delhi Police.

Summer test: The opposition as well as the treasury benches are now focussing on forthcoming assembly elections in West Bengal, Assam, Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and Kerala. The BJP-Trinamool Congress friction in West Bengal has already hit high voltage with desertions from the Mamata Banerjee camp and the bitter fight is sure to echo in Delhi during the Budget session, an opposition MP said. TMC has been alleging that excessive use of central forces is planned during the assembly election to benefit the BJP, while the counter allegation has been the use of state machinery by CM Mamata Banerjee to create hurdles for mega rallies by BJP bigwigs in West Bengal. The Modi-Mamata disharmony during the prime minister’s recent visit to Kolkata is a clear indication of the rising tension, the MP added.

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The BJP is planning to oust Mamata in West Bengal while making a dent in southern states of Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and Kerala. A number of persons from other parties in these three states have recently joined the BJP and this shows the tide is in our favour, said a BJP leader. In Assam, the BJP feels retaining power will be easy since the Congress has to fight without its stalwart Tarun Gogoi, who passed away in December.

Data Protection Bill: Though the Winter Session of Parliament was not convened due to COVID-19 restrictions, the Modi government is sitting pretty with rapid clearance of a large number of bills, including the three farm sector laws, during the Monsoon Session of 2020. Therefore, only a few important items like the Personal Data Protection Bill are on the pending agenda.

The Centre is also planning to introduce a legislation to replace the Commission for Air Quality Management in the National Capital Region and Adjoining Areas Ordinance that was promulgated last year in line with the Supreme Court’s suggestions. The legislation is also significant since farmers from states like Punjab and Haryana are opposing penalties for burning crop residue and this issue was raised during the ongoing talks between the government and representatives of farmers’ unions.

In the context of the Data Protection Bill, the opposition is planning to question the government on illegal loan apps that have led to suicides in states like Telangana and Tamil Nadu. The opposition is also looking to attack the government on the alleged leak of national security secrets to Republic TV’s Arnab Goswami, as was revealed in the chats between him and Partho Dasgupta, ex-CEO of Broadcast Audience Research Council.

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The government may also be faced with opposition missives on interfaith marriage law — known as ‘love jidad’ law — enacted in Uttar Pradesh and Madhya Pradesh. Various issues like NRC and abrogation of Article 370 are also expected to make a comeback in this context. Floods in several states including Tamil Nadu and lack of compensation to farmers is another issue likely to be raised in the Parliament by members from those states.

In the priority accorded to these politically-sensitive issues and the context of forthcoming assembly elections in five states, the Budget and the Economic Survey are likely to get far less attention they should get in the context of recession and once-in-a-century global pandemic impact that has nixed millions of small businesses and lakhs of jobs. As the political juggernaut rolls on, livelihood issues, poverty, quality of life and lack of development face the danger of losing the attention they deserve.

Indian economy may stage a smart recovery after the massive slide into recession, but elections continue to be the prime focus of the political class irrespective of their orientation to the right or the left.