BJP’s Lingayat vote base continues to crack while Congress retains hold

In the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, like elsewhere in the country, a Modi tidal wave swept Karnataka. Of the 28 seats, BJP scooped 25 in the state, many with impressive margins. The Congress, the JD(S) and an independent split the other three.

The Bharatiya Janata Party did well across most social groups; Lingayats, about 15 per cent of the population and traditional supporters of the BJP, voted for Modi in overwhelming numbers.

Lingayats and BSY

But in last year’s state elections, the Congress made a stunning comeback and picked up 135 seats in the 224-member Assembly. The BJP tally plunged from 104 to 66.

Although the saffron party held on to some pockets of influence, it lost across regions and social groups.

It had run a chaotic and divisive government for four years and suffered a huge anti-incumbency. The backward castes, Dalits and minorities consolidated behind the Congress and the Lingayats, upset over the treatment meted out to BS Yedyurappa (BSY), toned down their support to the BJP.

The BJP tried to move decisively to tackle its age-old BSY problem. While the party rode on his Lingayat votes, it had failed to prompt him to groom a second line of leadership and hand over the reins gracefully. So, BL Santosh, who is on deputation from the RSS to the BJP, removed BSY in a coup alienating significant chunks of Lingayat votes.

Trend is accelerating

The BJP pinned its hope on Prime Minister Narendra Modi to bring in votes. Though Modi campaigned extensively, only stopping short of taking part in door-to-door campaigning, the anticipated magic turned out to be a mirage.

These trends seem to be accelerating in the ongoing Lok Sabha elections as well.

The Modi wave has abated, possibly due to anti-incumbency, fatigue, diminishing returns on Hindutva and poor performance on key issues such as unemployment and inflation. And, the party’s Lingayat base continues to be restive and threatens to envelop the BJP in a civil war.

Kannadigas have built some reputation for voting differently in the Assembly and Parliament elections. Even when these elections have followed closely, they have voted different parties to power, setting aside the local from national issues.

Local issues

In 2014, they took part in a national reconstruction project and voted to herald achche din. In 2019, they collectively sanctioned the surgical strikes. But this year, for a change, they seem to have given a pass to the national sentiments.

“Local issues, local candidates, local caste equations are driving this election. The Modi appeal is limited to a few castes like Lingayats and Jains here,” says the campaign manager of a prominent independent candidate in Chikkodi constituency in north Karnataka.

Aggressive Congress

The Congress has waded into the election from a position of strength. Its “guarantees” have struck a chord with the people, especially the poor and the women.

The state is possibly witnessing an unprecedented consolidation of backward caste, minority and Dalit voters under Chief Minister Siddaramaiah. Different Congress factions have called truce and are working with a common plan.

The party has mobilised its 135 MLAs and made it clear that they will be held accountable if they don’t deliver votes.

“The BJP has given ticket to nine Lingayat candidates while the Congress has given ticket to five. But the Congress seems to have got the sub-caste equation better. Its strategy of giving ticket to the kin of ministers also seems to be paying off as the political heavyweights are slogging to keep their bastions intact,” says Renuka Prasanna, secretary of the All India Veerashaiva Lingayat Mahasabha.

Congress infighting

The Congress has had its share of troubles. Just last week, chairs flew in the presence of Siddaramiah in Koppala as rival factions went after each other.

But, with deft political management, the Congress has put out most bushfires. The party is in power and the leadership is using its clout to keep the flock together and focused.

In contrast, the BJP is in disarray, facing strife and even sabotage, in many constituencies. Former minister and sitting MLA Prabhu Chauhan has defied high command and refused to campaign for Union Minister Bhagwanth Khuba in Bidar. Former minister Madhuswamy didn’t come around to supporting the party candidate Somanna, a fellow Lingayat, in Tumkur.

Former BJP MLA Preetam Gowda did not throw his weight behind the alliance partner and the now infamous Prajwal Revanna in Hassan. Former party president and minister Eshwarappa has been expelled for contesting independently against BSY’s son in Shivamogga. There are frequent reports of the rank and file deserting the party and switching camps. The BJP, the party with a disciplined Sangh core, and a High Command that takes no hostages, has been found lacking in political management.

BJP and BSY

Much of BJP’s problem stems from its uneasy equation with BSY and in turn with his Lingayat vote base. After getting trounced in the Assembly elections, Modi and Home Minister Amit Shah sidelined BL Santosh and brought back BSY, who promptly made his son, BY Vijayendra, the new state president.

The power struggle between BSY and the faction opposed to him, consisting of Sangh stalwarts and many second line leaders, also promptly resumed.

If the BJP gets a clear majority in the State, BSY and sons would be unassailable, an unpalatable prospect to his opponents.

Many believe that while BSY wants to reaffirm his credentials as a vote catcher, he is not averse to the idea of making some of the candidates lose. “Any internal tussle with BSY invariably affects the Lingayat votes. While the Congress vote bank is consolidating, the BJP’s most important vote bank is in churn,” says a former BJP MLC.

No subservience to Sangh

While the Sangh Parivar feels that the BJP is its political and subservient wing, mass leaders like BSY do not like the idea. They do not like to give in to a Sangh which likes to call the shots but without the commensurate ability to bring in the votes. It is not just BSY, many party leaders with their own base remain wary of the manoeuvres of the Sangh.

Lingayats also have an ideological discomfort with the Sangh.

As followers of Basavanna who rebelled against Vedic Hinduism, they do not fully subscribe to the Hindutva mission. Unlike Brahmins or Vaishyas who may vote for the BJP with an ideological fervour, the Lingayat vote is tactical and conditional to the political gains they make in the bargain.

Whenever they think the Sangh oversteps and undermines their interest, they have shown they can part ways without looking back.

Dingalaeshwara Swami of Fakeereshwara math sought to contest against parliamentary minister Pralhad Joshi in Dharwad, saying the Sangh leader was working against the interests of Lingayats. Though the Swami eventually withdrew from the contest, he continues to campaign against Joshi.

BSY’s attempt to prop up his sons has created discomfort not just among his party opponents but also among Lingayats in general. “This is not Uttar Pradesh for a Mulayam Singh Yadav to hand over the baton to his son. Community support is not easy to come by nor is it transferable,” says an official of a powerful community organisation.

Vijayendra falls short

Vijayendra had the image of being a resourceful young leader though with a habit of getting enveloped in corruption allegations.

But, as party president, he has failed to impress and is not able to overcome the resistance of the seniors in the party. “His father has a better attitude, better ideas and better execution,” says the official quoted earlier.

Many say BSY’s pull on Lingayats is overestimated. “Even during his peak, BSY never won a full majority and he is far weaker now. Vokkaligas have to get rid of the Deve Gowda family and Lingayatas have to get rid of the BSY family to prosper,” says JS Patil of Jagatika Lingayat Mahasabha.

Panchamasali anger

The BJP may also be facing a limited backlash from Panchamasalis, the largest Lingayat sub caste. When BSY was in power, the Sangh Parivar stoked a reservation demand from the community to undercut his influence and create a parallel leadership.

The reservation movement blew up and the outcome offered by the Bommai government left everyone dissatisfied. The strategy may have backfired and the community leaders are reportedly quietly canvassing against the BJP.

The BJP’s stress with Lingayats has created opportunities for the Congress to woo the community. BSY did not allow a second line Lingayat leadership to grow while the Congress was anxious to do exactly that.

The party probably has a better line of second line Lingayata leaders with large pockets of influence. “The Congress has collective leadership while the Lingayata leaders in BJP have to listen to the Sangh. A leadership vacuum is developing as neither the Congress nor the BJP has a leader who can emerge as a pan Karnataka Lingayat leader,” says the official.

Advantage Siddaramiah

Siddaramiah, a follower of Basavanna, the founder of the Lingayat movement, has sought to reach out to the community in a series of symbolic and substantial measures.

His government has formally declared Basavanna the cultural icon of the state meeting a long-standing demand of the Lingayatas. This year’s Republic Day flower show at Lalbagh focused on Basavanna and other leaders of the Lingayat movement.

The promise to set up a university to promote the study of Vachanas, the Lingayat holy texts, has further made many educated and progressive voters endorse his leadership. So, how does all this come together to impact the ongoing Lok Sabha elections?

Divisions among Lingayats

Many point out that in 2019 as many as 80 per cent of Lingayats may have voted for the BJP, a number that is likely to come down significantly. Both the BJP and Congress reportedly have 20 per cent of Lingayat votes committed to them.

Twenty per cent of Lingayatas are considered “floating voters”, who may vote for the Congress in this election. Five to ten per cent of progressive Lingayats are locked in an ideological contest with the Sangh, a battle that is growing in intensity.

So, the Congress is expected to get a higher share of Lingayat votes than in 2019. In constituencies like Haveri, Bidar, Belagavi and Bagalkot where both parties have put up Lingayat candidates, the community vote may split and help the Congress candidates ride on backward, Dalit and minority votes.

Looking forward

In sum, the largest chunk of Lingayats may still stay with the BJP but compared to the last two elections, their numbers would reduce.

This may hand a definite advantage for the Congress whose base is intact and consolidating further.

With the Janata Dal (Secular) imploding, especially after the Prajwal Revanna scandal, the BJP may find a new catchment of Vokkaliga voters and finally realise its ambition diversifying its social base and stop being a strictly Lingayat party.

This is likely to work both ways and in turn may prompt the Lingayats also to diversify their political options.